US and Israel launch military strikes against Iran’s nuclear facilities as Strait of Hormuz crisis reshapes global energy

The US and Israel launched coordinated military strikes against Iran’s nuclear facilities on February 28, 2026, opening a conflict that has since reshaped the global energy landscape and turned the Strait of Hormuz into the most consequential chokepoint on the planet.

The operation, designated “Epic Fury” by the US military, targeted Iranian nuclear sites, missile shelters, and leadership positions. Its stated objective: degrade Tehran’s nuclear capabilities and military infrastructure before Iran could cross the threshold into weapons-grade enrichment. By April 8, a ceasefire was in place. By June, a memorandum of understanding sought to formalize the end of hostilities.

What happened, and what broke

US and Israeli assessments suggest the damage to Iran’s nuclear and missile infrastructure was substantial, though intelligence officials acknowledge that Iran retains critical knowledge and fissile material.

The June MOU reaffirmed Iran’s commitments to the Non-Proliferation Treaty and the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, the nuclear deal framework that has been in various states of life support since 2018. But the agreement deferred technical nuclear negotiations to a later, unspecified date.

Hormuz becomes the real battlefield

Iran has asserted increased control over the waterway, introducing new navigation regulations and announcing plans for a restricted maritime zone on September 7-8, 2026.

The Strait of Hormuz is roughly 21 miles wide at its narrowest point. Before the conflict, approximately 20 million barrels per day moved through the chokepoint. That figure has since collapsed to between 9 and 10 million barrels per day. The missing 10-11 million barrels per day represents roughly 10% of total global oil consumption.

The energy market fallout

The decline in Hormuz shipping volumes has sent shockwaves through global energy markets. Countries that depend heavily on Persian Gulf crude, including major importers across Asia and Europe, are scrambling to secure alternative supply. Pipeline capacity from the region can only partially offset seaborne losses, and other oil-producing regions are already operating near capacity.

Equity markets have been volatile, with energy sector stocks generally outperforming while transport, airlines, and manufacturing names absorb higher input costs.

What to watch next

The durability of the June MOU is the central question. If technical nuclear negotiations remain indefinitely postponed, the conditions that led to the February strikes haven’t actually been resolved. US and Israeli officials have suggested that Iran’s retained nuclear knowledge and material mean the threat hasn’t been eliminated, only set back.

The risk of miscalculation in the Strait remains elevated. Naval assets from multiple countries are operating in close proximity, new maritime regulations create ambiguity about rules of engagement, and the historical precedent for accidental escalation in tight waterways is not encouraging. The 1988 incident in which the USS Vincennes shot down an Iranian civilian airliner occurred in these same waters during a period of similar tension.

For global markets, the trajectory of Hormuz shipping volumes is now a central indicator. If flows stabilize around 9-10 million barrels per day, the world will adjust to a new baseline. If they decline further, or if a maritime incident triggers a fresh round of hostilities, the energy price spike could become something far more destabilizing.

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