US appoints hawkish adviser Nick Stewart to Iran negotiating team

## Market Snapshot

The market for whether a qualifying US-Iran diplomatic meeting will occur by June 30, 2026, is currently priced at 31.4% YES, showing an increase from 28% 24 hours ago and 18% seven days ago. The market for a US-Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026, is priced at 18.5% YES, down from 22% 24 hours ago.

## Key Takeaways

– The appointment of Nick Stewart as a hawkish adviser appears to suggest a more aggressive US stance in negotiations with Iran. – Market activity suggests participants may view the likelihood of a US-Iran diplomatic meeting before June 30, 2026, as decreasing. – The possibility of a permanent peace deal between the US and Iran by May 31, 2026, appears less likely according to market movements.

## Article Body

Nick Stewart has been confirmed as an adviser to the US negotiating team handling talks with Iran, marking a shift towards a potentially tougher US stance. Brought on by Jared Kushner, Stewart’s background includes experience at the State Department during Trump’s first term, and he formerly worked with the Foundation for the Defense of Democracies, a group known for its hawkish views on Iran. This development comes amid ongoing negotiations and international discussions on Iran’s nuclear program. The addition of Stewart to the negotiating team is seen as indicative of a more hardline approach by the US in its dealings with Iran.

## Market Interpretation

The news of Stewart’s appointment appears to have had a moderate impact on the markets related to US-Iran diplomacy, with implications supportive of a NO outcome for upcoming meetings and peace deals. The market for a diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026, indicates a perception of decreased likelihood, consistent with the addition of a hawkish adviser. Similarly, the market for a permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026, reflects increased skepticism about a successful resolution.

## What to Watch

Watch for announcements from key figures such as Steve Witkoff and Abbas Araghchi for any updates on scheduled diplomatic meetings. The reaction from Iran and other international stakeholders, including Oman and the IAEA, could significantly influence future market movements. Additionally, any further appointments or strategy shifts by the US could alter market perceptions regarding the likelihood of diplomatic progress.

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US x Iran permanent peace deal bearish

18% FLAT