3 hours ago
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US CENTCOM reports 14 vessels have turned back under the blockade’s enforcement. The market for Strait of Hormuz traffic returning to normal by April 30 sits at 6% YES, down from 10% a week ago.
Traffic is below 10% of pre-conflict levels. The likelihood of allied nations deploying warships through the Strait by April 30 is also at 6% YES. UK, Canada, and India sit at similar odds. All three markets dropped from last week’s levels, pointing to skepticism about imminent naval deployments.
The market for traffic normalization by May 31 prices at 83% YES. Traders see the blockade as temporary, likely resolved through diplomacy, possibly influenced by China’s push for negotiations.
Volume on the Strait of Hormuz market is $14,196 in USDC daily, with a $555 order moving the price 5 points. That’s thin liquidity, easily swayed by large trades. The largest move in the last 24 hours was a 2-point spike, suggesting occasional bullish sentiment tied to diplomatic signals.
China’s diplomatic efforts aim to de-escalate tensions, while the US maintains its military posture. The blockade enforces compliance but isn’t a long-term solution. Traders buying YES at 6¢ per share could see a 16.67x return if resolved by April 30, but with the blockade in full swing, that bet looks unlikely to pay off.
Watch for announcements from allied nations on warship deployments or changes in CENTCOM’s operational language. Either could move these markets quickly.
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