US claims Middle East oil flows rebound to 15M bpd amid scrutiny from independent trackers

US Energy Secretary Chris Wright announced on August 12 that oil flows from the Middle East and Gulf region have rebounded to approximately 15 million barrels per day. That figure breaks down into roughly 9 million bpd transiting the Strait of Hormuz and an additional 5 to 7 million bpd flowing through upgraded pipelines and alternative export facilities. That would put regional exports at about 75% of their pre-conflict baseline, when normal flows ran in the neighborhood of 20 to 21 million bpd before the onset of the US/Israel-Iran conflict on February 28, 2026.

The data gap

Commercial vessel-tracking services estimate actual Hormuz transits at somewhere between 4 and 8 million bpd. Even the upper bound falls well short of the 9 million bpd Wright cited for the strait alone.

Rystad Energy previously estimated that regional shut-in crude production peaked at 11.7 million bpd during the most intense phase of hostilities. That means at the conflict’s worst point, more than half of the region’s normal output was offline.

Earlier reports had pegged Gulf export rebounds at around 16.1 million bpd, a figure that also folded in bypass routes and alternative infrastructure. That number drew similar skepticism at the time.

Why six weeks matters

The definitive answer will come from destination arrival data, not departure claims. When oil leaves the Gulf, it takes weeks to reach major consuming regions in Asia, Europe, and elsewhere. Analysts expect that if 15 million bpd is genuinely flowing, the volumes should start showing up in arrival statistics within approximately six weeks.

Before the conflict, roughly one-fifth of global petroleum consumption passed through the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow waterway between Iran and Oman.

Market implications

If independent data eventually confirms something closer to the 4 to 8 million bpd range for Hormuz transits, that would mean the supply picture is considerably tighter than the US government is suggesting. If Wright’s numbers prove accurate, a recovery to 75% of pre-conflict flows would represent a credible path back toward supply adequacy.

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