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The US has stationed three aircraft carriers in the Middle East, the first such deployment since 2003. The market on whether the US blockade of the Strait of Hormuz will be lifted by May 31, 2026, sits at 63% YES, down from 72% yesterday.
The USS Gerald R. Ford, USS Abraham Lincoln, and USS George H.W. Bush are now all deployed to the region. The market reads this as reducing the likelihood of a near-term blockade lift. The odds for US escorts in Hormuz dropped to 5% YES, down from 7% yesterday.
The term structure tells the story. The blockade lift by May 31 market trades at 63%, down from 90% a week ago. Traders are pricing the carrier deployment as a sign of sustained naval operations, not a prelude to diplomatic resolution.
Volume on the blockade market hit $95,253 in USDC over the last 24 hours, making it one of the more liquid geopolitical bets on Polymarket. It would take $8,995 to move the odds by 5 points, which points to a thick order book. The escort market is far thinner: $732 could swing its odds by the same amount, leaving it exposed to large single orders.
The three-carrier presence is consistent with a strategy to squeeze Iran’s economy through sustained blockade. At 35¢, a NO share on the blockade being lifted pays $1 if the blockade holds, a 2.86x return. The bet comes down to whether the US maintains the blockade for at least another month.
Watch for statements from CENTCOM or the White House on any shift in strategy or diplomatic openings. A Trump announcement or Pentagon briefing would likely move these markets fast.
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