US forces’ odds of entering Iran by April 30 rise to 66% after Isfahan strike

by Estefano Gomez · Just now ago

U.S. and Israeli forces targeted Isfahan, Iran, while the USS Gerald R. Ford returned to the Middle East. The odds for U.S. forces entering Iran by April 30 rose to 66% YES, up from 55% just 24 hours ago.

The April 30 market peaked at 66% YES after the strike, with a 6-point drop at 1:12 AM from 62% to 56%, showing volatility. The December 31 market also rose to 74.5% YES, up from 64% the previous day, as traders anticipate further escalation.

The April 30 market shows strong engagement with $2,338,269 in USDC traded daily. It takes $185,131 to shift its price 5 points, indicating institutional interest. The March 31 market remains inactive at 0.1% YES, with just $8,522 in daily USDC.

The Isfahan strike highlights the U.S. focus on reducing Iran’s military capabilities. The USS Gerald R. Ford’s presence suggests ongoing tension. At 66¢, a YES share for April 30 pays $1 if U.S. ground forces enter Iran, offering a 1.5x return. Traders expect more military action as diplomacy stalls.

Watch for CENTCOM updates or Pentagon briefings; announcements of ground operations could push odds higher. Statements from Hegseth or Congressional War Powers authorization may be crucial.

Markets Impacted

• US forces enter Iran by March 31? — currently 0.1% YES
• US forces enter Iran by April 30? — currently 65.5% YES
• US forces enter Iran by December 31? — currently 74.5% YES

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