6 hours ago
9
The US labor market is refusing to cooperate with anyone hoping for cheaper money. Initial jobless claims came in at 199,000 for the week ending August 1, according to Labor Department data released August 6, marking the third consecutive week that claims have held below the 200,000 threshold.
That number is not just low. It is historically low. The four-week moving average has now fallen to its weakest level since September 2022, a period when the Fed was still in the early stages of its most aggressive rate-hiking cycle in decades.
What the numbers actually mean
The week ending July 18 produced an even more striking reading of 187,000 claims, one of the weakest figures recorded in recent decades.
For context, economists and Fed watchers have long treated the 200,000 mark as a rough dividing line between a cooling labor market and a resilient one. Three consecutive weeks below it, capped by a four-week moving average at a multi-year low, signals a jobs market that is not slowing down on its own.
Why crypto traders are paying attention to a jobs report
Risk assets, including Bitcoin and the broader digital asset market, tend to trade in the same direction as rate-cut expectations. When investors believe the Fed is about to lower borrowing costs, liquidity conditions improve, risk appetite increases, and assets like crypto benefit. When that timeline gets pushed out, the opposite tends to happen.
Strong labor readings have previously correlated with short-term weakness in crypto markets, precisely because they shift those rate-cut odds. A robust jobs market keeps the Fed on hold for longer, which strengthens the US dollar and raises the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets. Bitcoin, which carries no yield, sits squarely in that category.
What investors should watch next
Dollar strength is the other variable to track. When the Fed holds rates while other central banks ease, the dollar tends to appreciate. A stronger dollar historically creates headwinds for Bitcoin and other assets priced in US dollars.
Investors watching the Fed’s September meeting window should pay close attention to how the narrative around labor market strength evolves over the next several weeks. If claims stay anchored below 200,000 and the four-week average continues drifting lower, the case for a September cut becomes considerably harder to make.
Disclosure: This article was edited by Editorial Team. For more information on how we create and review content, see our Editorial Policy.
English (US) ·