US military conducts 13th night of strikes on Iranian military sites

The United States military has conducted its 13th straight night of airstrikes on Iranian military installations, aiming to diminish threats to commercial shipping in the region. The U.S. Department of Defense stated that these operations specifically targeted sites linked to the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) to ensure the safety of navigation through the critical Strait of Hormuz. This ongoing military campaign is part of the broader 2026 U.S.-Iran conflict, characterized by sustained air and maritime engagements. Despite various diplomatic efforts, ceasefire attempts have not succeeded, and tensions remain high, with the U.S. emphasizing the importance of maintaining freedom of navigation in the region.

Key Takeaways

• The continuation of U.S. airstrikes appears consistent with scenarios where Iran faces increased military pressure, potentially leading to a full airspace closure.
• Market pricing suggests a notable increase in the perceived likelihood of Iran closing its airspace, with odds for a July 31 closure moving from 34% to 39% in recent activity.
• The escalation in military activity may indicate a potential impact on Iran’s ability to maintain open airspace, as markets reflect increased probabilities for airspace closures by August 31.

What to Watch

Observers will be keenly watching for any announcement from the Civil Aviation Organization of Iran regarding airspace closures due to military threats. Additionally, official U.S. confirmations of continued strikes could further influence market probabilities. Diplomatic moves or statements from the Iranian government or Supreme Leader could also impact the likelihood of an airspace closure, as could any shifts in U.S. military strategy suggesting de-escalation. Markets will likely react to any new developments in these areas.

Get live prediction-market analysis, powered by Vera. Sign up for Vera.

Disclosure: This article was edited by Estefano Gomez. For more information on how we create and review content, see our Editorial Policy.