US military suspends withdrawal of aircraft from Israel as Iran tensions rattle crypto markets

The US military has hit pause on plans to pull aerial refueling aircraft out of Israel’s Ben Gurion Airport, reversing a drawdown that was supposed to signal cooling tensions with Iran.

The aircraft have been stationed at Ben Gurion since late February 2026, when the US and Israel launched coordinated strikes against Iranian targets in operations dubbed Epic Fury and Rising Lion. A partial withdrawal of roughly 20% of the refueling units had been announced in mid-June as part of what looked like a potential de-escalation framework between Washington and Tehran.

From drawdown to standstill

The original deployment involved an estimated 20 to 28 aerial refueling aircraft. The February strikes were not small. Reports indicated nearly 900 combined US and Israeli military actions targeting Iran during that period.

The backdrop here matters. The US-Israel joint operations escalated significantly following what’s been called the Twelve-Day War in June 2025, a rapid and intense conflict that reshaped the military calculus in the region.

What this means for crypto

When the February 28 strikes hit, Bitcoin dropped approximately 3%, falling to around $63,000. Bitcoin has historically exhibited a decline-then-recovery dynamic during geopolitical crises.

Prediction markets are currently pricing a 23% probability that Iran will close its airspace by July 31, 2026.

During earlier phases of the conflict, a hacking group associated with Israel reportedly claimed a $90 million theft from an Iranian crypto exchange.

During periods when traditional markets were closed due to the crisis, trading volume on decentralized platforms surged.

What investors should watch

Watch the 23% airspace closure probability on prediction markets. If that number starts climbing toward 30% or higher, expect Bitcoin to face renewed selling pressure. Conversely, any genuine diplomatic breakthrough would likely produce a relief rally.

The decentralized exchange volume spikes during market closures suggest a structural advantage that traditional finance cannot replicate, as crypto markets remain open when stock exchanges do not.

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