US munitions supplies run dangerously low amid Iran conflict

The United States military is facing a munitions crisis that defense planners have quietly worried about for years. Five months into an active shooting war with Iran, those fears are materializing in real time.

Operation Epic Fury, which commenced on February 28, 2026, has driven American missile and interceptor stockpiles to levels that several analysts describe as critically low. The pace of consumption has outrun the pace of production by a wide margin, and the gap is widening.

The numbers are stark

The US military has expended at least half of its Patriot interceptor stockpile since the conflict began. THAAD interceptors are in worse shape, with up to 80% of available stocks already used. Long-range precision munitions tell an even grimmer story: assessments suggest only about 20% of pre-war stocks remain on hand.

Reports indicate that virtually all PrSM and ATACMS long-range missiles have been consumed, with Tomahawk cruise missile inventories also significantly drawn down.

The first 39 days of the operation were particularly punishing on inventories. Early high-intensity strikes are standard military practice, but the sheer volume of munitions used in that opening phase compressed timelines that defense planners had expected to manage over a longer arc.

Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth has gone to Congress seeking billions in replenishment funding. The request is a formal acknowledgment that the gap between current stockpiles and mission requirements cannot be closed through existing budgets or procurement contracts.

A hole that was already being dug

This shortage did not begin on February 28. Pre-war inventories were already strained by years of commitments, most visibly the sustained transfer of munitions to Ukraine.

Experts now estimate it will take between one and four years to restore affected systems to pre-conflict inventory levels, depending on the system and the funding Congress is willing to commit.

President Trump has pushed back publicly against characterizations of a shortage, insisting that stock levels remain adequate for current operations. He has also threatened consequences for officials who leak information about munitions depletion to the press. Bloomberg and Reuters have both reported on the credible assessments pointing toward critical inventory levels.

What this means for the conflict and beyond

The replenishment funding request from Hegseth is the most direct signal that the administration privately acknowledges the severity of the situation.

For defense contractors, the surge in demand represents a significant production challenge. Lockheed Martin, Raytheon, and other prime contractors have the institutional knowledge to scale, but they need contract certainty before committing to the capital expenditures required to hire workers and expand facilities.

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