US ready for major combat operations against Iran, says General Caine

General Dan Caine stated the US is ready for major combat operations against Iran, while the Polymarket contract on Trump announcing an end to military operations against Iran sits at 0% YES.

Caine’s announcement could push odds on Trump announcing an end to military operations even lower from that floor. The statement makes an extension of military actions more likely, reducing the probability of resolution. Odds for Iran launching military action by April 30 sit at 100% YES, consistent with the current level of tension.

The market for military action ending by April 1, 2026, shows no recorded volume and no active trading. Odds are flat at 0%. The term structure for Iran’s action by April 30 shows firm consensus on imminent retaliation.

At 0% YES, buying into the military-action-ending contract offers no return absent an unexpected diplomatic breakthrough. Caine’s readiness statement is a bearish signal for any near-term resolution. Traders betting on an end to conflict would need to see concrete movement in peace talks or a clear de-escalation signal from either side.

Watch for Pentagon operational updates or formal statements from Trump on military objectives. Any shift in tone or strategy could move these odds.

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