3 hours ago
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Wall Street ended the day marginally lower amid heightened US-Iran tensions. The probability of a US-Iran ceasefire by April 30 sits at 37.5% YES, down from 36% a week ago.
A 37.5% chance of ending hostilities means traders expect continued conflict, not a quick diplomatic resolution. The WTI Crude Oil market tells a similar story: April odds for hitting $160 are at 1% YES, which implies low expectations for major supply disruption even with tensions over the Strait of Hormuz.
The ceasefire market has $54,670 in daily USDC volume, but the largest move was only a 4-point drop, suggesting traders are waiting for a more definitive signal before committing further. WTI Crude Oil markets, by contrast, see just $316 in daily USDC, meaning thin trading and odds that may not fully reflect unfolding events.
Why it matters: The Strait of Hormuz carries a large share of global oil transit, and Iranian threats to close it raise real supply risks. But traders appear to price in more rhetoric than action, given the flat movement in oil. A YES share for WTI Crude Oil to hit $160 in April costs 1.2¢, which represents massive upside if tensions escalate into actual supply disruption.
What to watch: New statements from Trump, particularly hawkish language like “obliterate” or “destroy,” could further depress ceasefire odds. Any OPEC+ actions or Iranian military maneuvers near the Strait could shift crude oil price expectations quickly.
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