2 hours ago
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Axios reports the White House insists Iran will never possess nuclear weapons. The odds of a US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30 now sit at 3% YES, down from 7% yesterday.
The US-Iran Nuclear Deal by April 30 market saw the sharpest drop as traders priced in a hardened US stance. The Iran Surrender of Enriched Uranium Stockpile by April 30 market is at 2% YES, down from 65% just a week ago. The meeting location market, which tracks whether no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occurs by June 30, is at 15.5% YES, up from 2% a week ago.
The nuclear deal market has $7,699 in actual USDC traded, with $1,550 needed to move the price by five points, making it sensitive to large trades. The uranium stockpile market is thicker, requiring $9,564 for a similar shift. The largest move was a 4-point spike when rumors of a potential deal surfaced, but it corrected quickly.
The sharp decline in odds across all three markets shows traders see little chance of a near-term breakthrough. For speculators, the contrarian play is in long-dated markets. Buying YES at 40¢ offers a 2.5x return if Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium by year-end. That bet requires a major diplomatic pivot, possibly involving third-party mediation.
Watch for statements from Vice President Vance or Trump himself. Any shift in Iran’s position or a new diplomatic channel could move these markets fast.
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