3 hours ago
14
White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt said the situation for the Iranian regime is worsening. The odds for the Iranian regime falling by June 30 are now at 8.5% YES, while the ceasefire by April 30 sits at 16.5% YES.
The failed Islamabad negotiations and Leavitt’s remarks have pushed sentiment toward regime instability. The June 30 market is at 8.5% YES, up from 6% yesterday. The April 30 market remains flat at 0.7% YES, which prices in very low probability of immediate collapse.
Leavitt’s statement also hit ceasefire prospects hard. Odds for a ceasefire by April 30 dropped to 16.5% YES from 32% yesterday. Traders are pricing in further military action rather than a diplomatic resolution.
The regime fall markets combined for $33,064 in actual USDC over the last 24 hours. The June 30 market needs $16,963 to move 5 points, suggesting steady liquidity. The ceasefire market traded $68,607 in actual USDC, with a large 5-point move at 6:59 PM capturing the day’s volatility.
Leavitt’s comments point to a shift from negotiation toward military escalation, which makes the regime instability bet worth considering as a contrarian position. A YES share for the regime falling by June 30 at 8.5¢ pays $1, a 11.8x return. This is a high-risk trade that depends on regime fractures or intensified US actions.
Watch for Pentagon briefings and any IRGC movements. A sudden change in posture or leadership could move these markets fast.
Get prediction market intelligence as a structured API feed. Early access waitlist.
English (US) ·