Why airdrop farmers will find it harder to ‘make a killing’ in 2025

Airdrops, wherever crypto projects crockery retired invaluable tokens to their aboriginal users, person provided enterprising DeFi enthusiasts the accidental to marque millions.

But according to CC2Ventures, a pseudonymous crypto property who says helium has made implicit 7 figures from airdrops, it’s getting harder for caller entrants to replicate his success.

“Airdrops are present to stay, but lone a precise prime fewer volition people and it volition beryllium progressively hard to marque a sidesplitting disconnected them,” helium told DL News.

Value compression

Throughout 2023 and 2024, DeFi users who stuck it retired during the crypto wintertime were rewarded with respective lucrative airdrops.

In October 2023, modularity blockchain Celestia airdropped 60 cardinal of its TIA token — worthy $1.2 cardinal astatine its highest valuation — to Ethereum and Cosmos users, among others.

Later that year, Solana task Jito launched its JTO token and airdropped 10% to aboriginal users. At the JTO token’s highest valuation, those who received the smallest allocations could merchantability their stash for implicit $20,000.

But successful caller months, galore hopeful airdrop hunters person been near feeling short-changed.

When Ethereum furniture 2s Scroll and ZKsync airdropped their tokens successful precocious 2024, users complained of paltry allocations oregon being left out of the airdrops entirely.

“The farmers got millions of tokens from ZKsync,” Farea, a pseudonymous self-styled airdrop hunter, told DL News successful June. “But the existent radical who were doing this for 2 years lone got 1,200 [tokens].”

Many of those who did get tokens chose to merchantability them, arsenic highlighted by the mediocre show of Scroll’s SCR and ZKsync’s ZKS tokens successful examination to Celestia and Jito’s tokens.

‘The marketplace wide smartened up.’’

CC2Ventures said that the accrued fig of akin projects launching tokens — specified arsenic furniture 2s — is starring to valuation compression.

“Previously determination were lone 2 oregon 3 furniture 2s with a token: Optimism, Arbitrum, Immutable; present determination are implicit 20,” helium said.

Simply put, the much projects motorboat tokens, the harder it is for the marketplace to prolong precocious valuations for each of them.

Crowded out

In 2020, apical decentralised speech Uniswap was among the archetypal DeFi protocols to behaviour an airdrop, rewarding aboriginal users who traded connected the level with UNI tokens.

Because the Uniswap airdrop and different aboriginal airdrops similar it were unexpected, and occurred erstwhile DeFi was a smaller sector, they rewarded a smaller fig of users. This meant bigger payouts for each person.

But accelerated guardant 5 years, and that dynamic has changed a lot.

Institutions, VCs, and different large players person joined the airdrop farming game, lured successful by the lucrative returns, CC2Ventures said. And with much awareness, the tokens projects springiness retired are getting divided among much people.

“The marketplace wide smartened up,” CC2Ventures said.

The often predictable eligibility criteria projects usage to determine who gets an airdrop and who doesn’t person made it casual for airdrop farmers, particularly organised ones, to guarantee they get a payout.

Silver lining

Despite galore caller airdrops failing to unrecorded up to earlier ones, that doesn’t mean they each will.

“There volition ever beryllium outliers that volition people heavy owed to the marketplace aboriginal connected overlooking the opportunity,” CC2Ventures said.

Such a concern could arise, helium said, erstwhile a DeFi task starts attracting immense numbers of users and superior aft it has been unrecorded for a agelong time.

Perpetuals speech Hyperliquid, which airdropped its HYPE token successful November, is 1 illustration of this phenomenon. It launched its airdrop “points” run successful November 2023 erstwhile the level was tiny compared to its competitors.

But predicting the adjacent Hyperliquid is easier said than done. CC2Ventures isn’t taking immoderate chances.

“A spray-and-pray attack — farming them each — works best,” helium said.

Tim Craig is DL News’ Edinburgh-based DeFi Correspondent. Reach retired with tips astatine [email protected].