William Blair sees Coinbase and Circle benefiting from crypto recovery despite slashing estimates

William Blair is making a contrarian bet on two of crypto’s biggest public companies. In a research note dated July 15, analysts maintained Outperform ratings on both Coinbase (COIN) and Circle (CRCL) even as they took a hatchet to their near-term financial projections.

The cuts run deep

William Blair reduced its 2026 Coinbase revenue estimates by 12% and its 2027 forecasts by 13%. The adjusted EBITDA outlook took an even harder hit, with projections slashed by 34% across both years.

The culprit is declining spot trading volumes, which remain the engine that powers Coinbase’s top line. The firm projects total trading volume on the platform will fall roughly 44% in 2026 to $669 billion, before bouncing back over 32% in 2027.

For context, Coinbase shares are currently sitting about 60% below their peak from July 2025 and 26% beneath their March 2026 highs. William Blair’s analysts see the pullback as having already absorbed the weak trading activity.

Where the optimism comes from

The analysts pointed to what they called an “asymmetrical risk/reward” setup for both stocks.

For Coinbase specifically, the firm expects EBITDA to hit its lowest point in the second half of 2026 before rebounding in 2027. That recovery, they argue, won’t be driven solely by a return of retail trading volume. Instead, newer revenue streams, including derivatives trading, prediction markets, and USDC-related activities, are expected to provide a more diversified earnings base.

The USDC growth story

Circle’s USDC stablecoin has been quietly gaining ground. Its market share has climbed to approximately 27% as of April 2026, up from about 21% in 2024.

William Blair characterized the Coinbase-Circle relationship over USDC reserves as a “core positive” for both firms. Coinbase distributes USDC across its platform and earns a share of the interest income generated by Circle’s reserve holdings.

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