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For most of this year, SpaceX’s IPO looked like an untouchable record. Then Anthropic quietly filed a confidential S-1 with the SEC, and suddenly prediction markets have a real race on their hands.
Polymarket currently prices SpaceX as the favorite to hold the title of largest 2026 IPO by market cap, with roughly 55% odds. Anthropic sits just behind at 44-45%. That gap sounds comfortable until you consider where the probability was a few months ago: SpaceX commanded around 94% in August 2026. The AI company didn’t just close the gap, it nearly erased it.
The numbers making investors pay attention
SpaceX’s June 2026 IPO was not a modest debut. The company priced shares at $135 each, raised $75 billion, and landed a valuation of approximately $1.77 trillion. Shares climbed to around $225 intraday before settling back to trade near $142. By any historical measure, that is the largest IPO on record.
Anthropic is aiming higher. The company filed its S-1 confidentially on June 1, 2026, and is targeting an IPO as early as October with a valuation north of $2 trillion. Its most recent post-money valuation, following a May 2026 funding round, stood at $965 billion, meaning the public offering would need to roughly double that figure to hit its target.
Anthropic’s annualized revenue run-rate reached $47 billion as of May 2026. Projections cited by the company point toward $100-120 billion by the end of the year.
Why this contest matters beyond bragging rights
There is also a timing variable with real consequences. If Anthropic’s IPO slips past December 31, 2026, the question resolves automatically in SpaceX’s favor regardless of Anthropic’s valuation. Prediction markets bake this deadline risk into the current odds, which is part of why SpaceX retains its probability edge even as Anthropic’s fundamentals have grown more impressive.
Broader IPO market dynamics add another layer of complexity. Analysts covering IPO markets have flagged clustering of high-profile tech and AI listings as worth watching, not as a prediction of doom but as a signal that risk appetite has its limits.
If Anthropic prices above SpaceX’s $1.77 trillion benchmark and the stock holds on its first day, it will not just set a record. It will effectively reprice how the public markets think about AI as an asset class, with implications for every company in the sector still waiting to go public.
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