Arkham launches Elo ratings for prediction market traders

Blockchain analytics firm Arkham has introduced an Elo style rating system designed to compare prediction market traders based on accuracy.

INTRODUCING: PREDICTION MARKET ELO

Some traders consistently win on Polymarket, bet after bet.

We’ve created prediction market performance ratings (Elo) on Arkham Intel to help you find them. Here’s how it works: pic.twitter.com/NWg9WXxJIA

— Arkham (@arkham) June 29, 2026

Correct predictions increase a trader’s score relative to other participants. Successful calls made at lower implied probabilities receive a larger boost than outcomes the market already considered likely.

The system does not consider bet size, allowing smaller traders with stronger win rates to rank above larger participants generating more profit through bigger positions.

Arkham said the ratings are intended to separate consistent forecasting performance from total profit and trading volume.

However, accuracy alone may not provide a complete view of performance. The rating does not account for position sizing, risk management or the value lost on unsuccessful trades

Disclosure: This article was edited by Estefano Gomez. For more information on how we create and review content, see our Editorial Policy.