Bank of America forecasts 110,000 jobs added in June, raising stakes for Fed rate hike odds

Bank of America Securities is projecting that the US economy added 110,000 nonfarm payroll jobs in June, a forecast published on June 29, ahead of the official Bureau of Labor Statistics employment report scheduled for July 2.

What’s behind the number

The 110,000 figure leans on three consecutive months of consistent job gains, moderate jobless claims data, and robust readings from the ADP private-payroll report.

The Fed rate hike calculus

According to Bank of America, if the jobs report comes in stronger than the 110,000 estimate, it could boost market odds of three Federal Reserve interest rate hikes within 2026.

That dynamic has historically been unkind to crypto. When the Fed hiked aggressively in 2022 and into 2023, Bitcoin and the broader digital asset market took significant hits as liquidity dried up and investors rotated into safer instruments.

What this means for crypto investors

Bank of America’s payroll forecast makes zero mention of any specific cryptocurrencies or blockchain protocols. It reflects the reality that macro data like employment figures influence crypto through indirect channels, primarily through monetary policy expectations and their effect on liquidity conditions.

Bank of America’s broader 2026 research agenda has explored themes like AI-driven economic growth, anticipated stablecoin regulations, and banks potentially transitioning to on-chain operations. But in the short term, none of that matters if the Fed is tightening the screws on liquidity.

The spread between the actual number and the 110,000 consensus estimate will likely determine near-term direction for risk assets. A significant beat could trigger a risk-off move as rate hike probabilities reprice higher. A miss could do the opposite.

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