Bernstein praises Circle’s Q2 results, counters bearish concerns with Arc and partnership upside

Circle just posted its Q2 2026 earnings, and Bernstein’s takeaway is essentially: the bears are looking at the wrong spreadsheet.

The Wall Street research firm is maintaining its Outperform rating on CRCL, arguing that Circle’s partnerships, regulatory approvals, and its upcoming Arc launch create revenue streams that current consensus estimates simply aren’t capturing.

The numbers behind the optimism

Circle reported total revenue and reserve income of $701 million for Q2 2026, a 7% year-over-year increase.

USDC circulation hit $73.3 billion, up 19% year-over-year. The real jaw-dropper sits in the transaction data: onchain volume surged to $14.8 trillion, a 151% year-over-year increase.

The gap between circulation growth (19%) and transaction volume growth (151%) tells you that velocity is accelerating dramatically, meaning each dollar of USDC in circulation is turning over far more frequently than it did a year ago.

Arc changes the math

Circle raised its full-year other-revenue guidance to $310 million to $330 million, a figure that includes roughly $180 million expected from the Arc token presale. The presale itself has already generated approximately $222 million to $242 million at a $3 billion valuation, giving Circle a meaningful revenue injection that has nothing to do with Fed funds rates.

The Arc public mainnet is scheduled to launch on September 16, 2026, and the founding validator set includes BlackRock, DTCC, ICE, Mastercard, and Visa.

Bernstein’s price targets on CRCL range from $140 to $230.

Regulatory moat deepens

Circle picked up a national trust bank charter approved by the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC). This places Circle in a fundamentally different regulatory category than most of its stablecoin competitors, giving it direct access to the US banking system’s rails without relying on banking partners.

What this means for investors

The 151% surge in onchain transaction volume is the most underappreciated data point in the earnings release. The Arc presale revenue also provides a near-term financial cushion: that $180 million expected contribution to other revenue absorbs a meaningful chunk of potential reserve income compression.

USDC’s 19% circulation growth trails the broader stablecoin market’s expansion, suggesting that competitors, particularly Tether, continue to gain ground in absolute terms.

Investors watching this space should track three things over the next quarter: USDC circulation trends relative to competitors, Arc mainnet launch execution in September, and whether Circle begins disclosing transaction-based revenue as a separate line item.

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