Bernstein predicts Bitcoin to hit $150K by mid-2027 and $300K by 2029

Wall Street research firm Bernstein has put fresh numbers on Bitcoin’s bull case, and they are not small. Analyst Gautam Chhugani issued a note forecasting that Bitcoin reaches $150,000 by mid-2027 and approximately $300,000 by the end of 2029, with the firm’s long-term target of $1 million by 2033 remaining unchanged since it was first set in mid-2024.

The note landed as Bitcoin was trading around $80,000, having climbed roughly 25% over the prior ten days.

What Bernstein is actually saying

The $150K and $300K figures represent Bernstein’s base case. In a more aggressively bullish environment, Chhugani’s model puts Bitcoin as high as $500,000 in 2029, with a mid-cycle recovery floor around $200,000 by mid-2027.

The firm updated its near-term targets upward while keeping the $1M long-run thesis intact.

The core argument rests on two structural forces. First, institutional adoption is no longer theoretical. Bernstein flagged that ETF outflows during past Bitcoin corrections have remained below 5%, a sign that the investors now holding Bitcoin through regulated products are not the panic-sellers that historically amplified downturns.

Second, Bernstein points to currency debasement as a structural tailwind. The firm’s view is that governments facing escalating sovereign debt are more likely to tolerate inflation than embrace fiscal austerity, which makes a fixed-supply asset look considerably more attractive to anyone running a multi-year portfolio.

The institutional shift underneath the price targets

Bernstein’s updated forecasts reflect a structural change in who is actually buying Bitcoin. The firm’s analysis describes a shift in buyer demographics away from retail investors and toward institutional buyers and ETF vehicles.

The less-than-5% ETF outflow figure during recent corrections is Bernstein’s data point supporting that behavioral shift. If that dynamic holds, Bitcoin’s future cycles may look less like the 80%-drawdown crashes of 2018 and 2022 and more like the corrections seen in traditional equity markets.

The ETF approval cycle that began in early 2024 effectively opened Bitcoin to pension funds, endowments, and wealth management platforms that were previously locked out by compliance rules requiring regulated wrappers. Bernstein’s argument is that this capital is still in early innings of deployment.

Why $1 million by 2033 is not just a headline number

Reaching $1 million per Bitcoin would imply a market capitalization that rivals or exceeds major sovereign wealth funds and begins to approach the total addressable market of gold as a store-of-value asset. Bernstein’s thesis is essentially that Bitcoin captures a meaningful share of capital currently parked in gold, bonds, and cash equivalents held as inflation hedges.

Their timeline, mid-2027 for $150K and 2029 for $300K, implies a measured, multi-year accumulation process rather than a sudden speculative spike.

The macroeconomic scaffolding underneath that view includes sustained government borrowing, declining real interest rates, and central bank behavior that prioritizes economic growth over currency stability.

Chhugani’s note also implicitly acknowledges that the prior Bitcoin cycle playbook may not be the right model anymore. The $300K by end-of-2029 forecast is a longer runway than prior cycle peaks suggested, which is itself a statement about market maturation.

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