Bitcoin demand turns positive for first time since October 2025 all-time high

For the first time in roughly ten months, Bitcoin is seeing genuine demand growth in both spot and perpetual futures markets simultaneously. The shift, flagged by CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju on August 20, marks the first time the nominal demand indicator has flipped positive since Bitcoin touched its all-time high above $126K back in October 2025.

What the demand flip actually means

Bitcoin’s nominal demand indicator captures the net change in buying pressure across both spot exchanges and perpetual futures contracts. When it’s negative, more sellers than buyers are driving price action. When it turns positive, the balance tips the other way.

Earlier in 2026, there were moments when futures markets showed signs of life. But those rallies consistently fizzled because spot market buyers never showed up to back them. This time, the spot market is participating.

The path from $126K to $60K

After topping out above $126K in October 2025, Bitcoin bled slowly, with periodic rallies that gave false hope before each new leg down erased months of recovery. By early August 2026, Bitcoin was trading in the low $60Ks, a roughly 50% drawdown from the peak.

Ki Young Ju noted that earlier rallies in 2026 were driven primarily by leveraged futures positions rather than organic spot buying.

What needs to happen next

Ki Young Ju acknowledged that the positive trend would need to sustain for roughly another month before it could credibly signal the end of the downturn and the beginning of a new bull cycle.

Spot Bitcoin ETFs, which were a major demand driver during the run-up to the October 2025 ATH, saw significant outflows during the downturn. If those flows reverse in tandem with the on-chain demand metrics, the case for a structural bottom becomes substantially stronger.

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