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Betting markets have turned decidedly bearish on crypto’s most anticipated piece of legislation. The Digital Asset Market Clarity Act, the regulatory framework that was supposed to finally give the industry its rules of the road, now sits at roughly 30.5% odds of passing by the end of 2026 on Polymarket.
That’s a stunning reversal. Earlier this year, those same odds exceeded 70%.
From near-certainty to long shot
The CLARITY Act was designed to be the definitive answer to a question the crypto industry has been asking for years: which assets are securities and which are commodities? In English: it would tell projects whether they answer to the SEC or the CFTC, ending the regulatory ambiguity that has defined the US approach to digital assets.
For a while, it looked like the bill had real momentum. Galaxy Digital pegged the probability of passage at 75% back in May. By June, the firm had already trimmed that to 60%. Now prediction markets have slashed it nearly in half again.
Polymarket’s current pricing tells the story clearly. The “No” outcome is trading at 69.5%, with more than $1.85 million in volume backing that view. Kalshi, another prediction platform, showed similar deterioration, with odds for the broader crypto market structure bill sliding from a 36-44% range in early July to even lower levels.
The Trump problem
President Trump has made public statements pushing for Senate action on crypto regulation. A high-level White House meeting with senators was reportedly planned around July 16 to address lingering concerns about the bill.
In practice, it’s become an anchor. The central issue is ethics, specifically questions around the Trump family’s financial interests in crypto assets. Lawmakers on both sides of the aisle have struggled to separate the policy merits of the CLARITY Act from the optics of passing legislation that could directly benefit the president’s family.
This dynamic played out earlier in 2026 with the stablecoin bill as well.
Congressional clock is ticking
The timing problem compounds everything else. Congress is heading toward its scheduled recess, which means the window for productive negotiation is shrinking by the day.
For context, the US has been trying to establish comprehensive crypto market structure legislation in some form since at least 2022. Multiple versions have been introduced, debated, and quietly shelved. The CLARITY Act represented the closest the industry had come to a finish line, which makes the current retreat in odds all the more notable.
What this means for investors
The declining probability of passage creates a tangible ripple effect across the digital asset landscape. Regulatory clarity has long been cited as one of the primary catalysts that could unlock institutional capital at scale.
The more structural concern is what prolonged regulatory uncertainty means for competitive positioning. Other jurisdictions, notably the EU with its MiCA framework and Dubai with its virtual asset regulatory authority, have already established comprehensive rules.
Galaxy Digital’s forecast trajectory is instructive here. Going from 75% to 60% to watching Polymarket price the bill at 30.5% in the span of two months suggests that institutional analysts were initially too optimistic about the political dynamics at play.
Disclosure: This article was edited by Editorial Team. For more information on how we create and review content, see our Editorial Policy.
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