Fed’s Goolsbee encouraged by inflation cooling but wants more proof before calling it done

Austan Goolsbee, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, is feeling cautiously better about inflation. Not celebratory, not ready to declare mission accomplished, but better.

Speaking on August 14, Goolsbee said the latest inflation data shows promising signs of moderation, while making clear he needs more sustained evidence before concluding that price growth is genuinely converging toward the Fed’s 2% target.

What the numbers actually show

The July 2026 Consumer Price Index came in at 3.4% year-over-year, down from 3.5% in June. Core CPI rose 2.5% year-over-year in July, with a 0.2% increase month-over-month. Headline inflation grew just 0.1% from June to July.

For most of 2026, Goolsbee had been describing inflation as the primary economic problem and supported holding interest rates steady at the July FOMC meeting. Goolsbee pointed specifically to tariffs and elevated oil prices as the external shocks that had been keeping inflation elevated earlier in the year. His read on the summer CPI data is that those forces are losing their grip on overall price levels.

Cautious optimism, emphasis on cautious

His language was deliberate: he called for several more months of data before making any definitive judgments about a sustainable return to the 2% target.

Earlier in 2026, Goolsbee had expressed concern that inflation was trending in an unwelcome direction, driven by services sector stickiness and external shocks. The July data shifted his mood, but not his methodology.

Goolsbee has been one of the more balanced voices on the Federal Open Market Committee, consistently arguing that the Fed should avoid aggressive rate moves that could inflict unnecessary economic damage.

Goolsbee has served as president and CEO of the Chicago Fed since January 2023, bringing an academic economics background to a policymaking role during one of the more turbulent inflation cycles in recent memory.

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