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HSBC has bumped its 2026 Brent crude price forecast from $80 to $90 per barrel, citing a Strait of Hormuz crisis that shows no signs of cooling off. The bank’s senior oil analyst Kim Fustier warned that oil markets are unlikely to rebalance until the middle of 2027, painting a picture of prolonged supply stress that ripples well beyond the energy sector.
Brent crude has recently been trading above $100 per barrel as shipping attacks in the region escalate. The revised forecast, while still below current spot prices, signals HSBC’s view that elevated prices are structural rather than a temporary spike.
The Hormuz bottleneck
The Strait of Hormuz is the narrow waterway between Iran and Oman through which roughly a fifth of the world’s daily oil consumption normally flows.
Right now, oil flows through the strait have stabilized around 6 million barrels per day. That figure represents approximately 30% of pre-conflict levels, a dramatic collapse that has fundamentally altered global supply dynamics.
A US-Iran memorandum of understanding that had aimed to stabilize oil transit through the strait collapsed in July 2026. That diplomatic failure removed the market’s main source of optimism for a near-term resolution, and Fustier’s note reflects the aftermath.
HSBC expects flows to gradually recover to 8 million bpd by the end of 2026 and 9.5 million bpd by mid-2027. Even that optimistic trajectory would leave transit volumes well below historical norms for more than a year.
The numbers behind the revision
The $90 forecast for 2026 wasn’t the only adjustment. HSBC also raised its 2027 Brent outlook to $85 per barrel, up sharply from $65. The bank’s longer-term assumption for 2028 and beyond sits at $75 per barrel, suggesting analysts expect some normalization but not a return to the sub-$70 environment that prevailed in calmer times.
In a stalemate scenario, where diplomatic efforts continue to fail and transit volumes remain depressed, Fustier’s analysis suggests Brent could surge to $120 per barrel before moderating sometime in 2027.
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