Iran and Oman draft waterway deal as Trump rejects Tehran’s control, transit fees

Iran and Oman are drafting a potential agreement regarding the management of the Strait of Hormuz, a vital maritime chokepoint, while U.S. President Donald Trump has objected to any Iranian control and fee imposition. The discussions between Iran and Oman involve shipping routes and possible service fees but are conditional on the U.S. lifting sanctions. Trump’s firm stance against Iranian tolls and control aligns with a high-escalation maritime dispute, involving sanctions and threats around shipping in the strait. The strategic importance of the Strait of Hormuz, as a major energy transit route, means any fee regime by Iran could have significant international implications.

Key Takeaways

• Trump’s opposition to Iranian control and transit fees suggests a decrease in the likelihood of the U.S. imposing its own fees on the Strait of Hormuz.
• Market pricing indicates a low probability of the U.S. charging fees for Hormuz passage, with odds currently at 1.8% for August 31, 2026.
• The ongoing negotiations between Iran and Oman could lead to changes in the market outlook if U.S. sanctions are addressed.

What to Watch

Monitor any developments in the Iran-Oman negotiations for further details on the waterway deal. Statements from key U.S. officials like Trump, Rubio, and Vance could provide crucial indications of the U.S. policy direction. Additionally, any adjustments in U.S.-Iran relations, including sanctions or diplomatic agreements, could impact market pricing related to Hormuz transit fees. Changes in these areas would be consistent with shifts in market expectations regarding the U.S. charging fees in the Strait of Hormuz.

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Disclosure: This article was edited by Estefano Gomez. For more information on how we create and review content, see our Editorial Policy.