Iran regime under scrutiny for handling protest victim bodies at Tehran hospital

Recent reports from Iran International have shed new light on the handling of protest victim bodies at Al-Ghadir Hospital in Tehran. The information suggests that the bodies of those killed in the December 2025 protests were transferred and stored at the hospital due to a lack of morgue capacity, which has intensified scrutiny on the regime’s handling of the unrest. This development is part of the broader context of the December protests, which erupted over economic grievances and led to significant casualties and arrests, according to human rights groups.

In the prediction markets, this revelation appears to have affected the perceived stability of the Iranian regime. The market for the regime’s potential fall by the end of 2026 has seen an increase in the implied probability of a YES outcome, now standing at 9.5%. Similarly, the market for a regime change by September 2026 has also seen a slight uptick, indicating that market participants may view these developments as consistent with ongoing unrest and dissatisfaction.

Key Takeaways

• The new information about the handling of protest victims’ bodies at Al-Ghadir Hospital suggests increasing scrutiny on the Iranian regime.
• Market pricing reflects an increased likelihood of regime change, with the probability of a fall by the end of 2026 now at 9.5% YES.
• The September 2026 sub-market has also seen increased YES pricing, suggesting market participants view recent developments as consistent with potential instability.

What to Watch

Observers should monitor any further revelations about the regime’s handling of protests and casualties, as these could influence market sentiment. Key indicators will include actions by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, potential defections, and any new international interventions. Should Mojtaba Khamenei face significant challenges to his leadership or if there are mass protests, this could shift market perceptions further towards a YES outcome. Conversely, successful crackdowns or regime concessions might stabilize the situation and reduce the perceived risk of regime change.

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Disclosure: This article was edited by Estefano Gomez. For more information on how we create and review content, see our Editorial Policy.