Jefferies banker flags major shift in tech M&A as AI deals replace software acquisitions

For years, software deals were the reliable backbone of technology M&A. Roughly half of all tech transactions involved software companies. That era appears to be winding down fast.

Jason Greenberg, Global Head of Investment Banking Strategy and Executive Chairman of TMT at Jefferies, told Bloomberg’s Deals show on August 26 that a new wave of dealmaking is emerging in the technology sector.

Software’s fall from grace

According to Greenberg, software transactions previously accounted for approximately 50% of the tech deal landscape. Over the past year, that share has declined dramatically.

The sector’s center of gravity has shifted toward AI capabilities and enterprise applications, leaving traditional software targets looking less attractive by comparison.

Earlier phases of tech M&A were dominated by talent acquisitions. Foundational AI labs like OpenAI and Anthropic were at the center of acquisition interest, alongside hyperscalers such as Amazon and Microsoft that were racing to lock down competitive AI capabilities before their rivals could.

What the next phase looks like

Whether this next chapter centers primarily on AI infrastructure or on enterprise solutions that apply AI to specific business problems remains an open question. Both categories are drawing serious buyer interest.

Jefferies’ positioning in a shifting market

Greenberg’s commentary carries extra weight given Jefferies’ own performance in the advisory market. The firm has achieved record or near-record M&A market share in recent periods, a notable feat for a bank that competes against significantly larger institutions for mandate flow.

The broader investment banking landscape has been waiting for a sustained M&A recovery after a prolonged drought that followed the interest rate hiking cycle. Technology appears to be leading that recovery, but the character of the deals is fundamentally different from what bankers were advising on three or four years ago.

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