Oil majors’ profits surge as Iran conflict disrupts Middle East supplies

Major oil companies, including ExxonMobil, Chevron, Shell, and TotalEnergies, have reported significant profit increases as a result of elevated crude prices. The ongoing conflict in Iran has disrupted supply routes in the Middle East, particularly affecting the Strait of Hormuz, leading to one of the largest supply disruptions in oil-market history. This disruption has reduced regional oil flows by millions of barrels per day, driving crude prices higher. The International Energy Agency (IEA) noted that Brent crude was priced around $69 per barrel in the July 2026 outlook, with WTI in the mid-$80s, indicating sustained high prices.

Market participants have adjusted their expectations accordingly. The potential for crude oil to reach a new all-time high by September 30 has seen fluctuating sentiment, with the probability currently priced at 5.2% for September 30, down from 6% a day earlier. Despite the recent surge in oil company profits, market pricing suggests that participants remain cautious about the likelihood of a new high within the current timeframe.

Key Takeaways

• Market observations suggest that the surge in oil company profits is consistent with elevated crude prices due to the ongoing Iran war.
• Current pricing indicates a decreased probability, now at 5.2%, of crude oil reaching a new all-time high by September 30.
• The IEA’s report of high Brent and WTI prices supports the view of constrained supply impacting market expectations.

What to Watch

Key developments to monitor include any changes in geopolitical dynamics affecting the Middle East, which could impact crude supply routes and prices further. Statements or actions from OPEC and major energy officials like Mohammad Sanusi Barkindo and Abdulaziz bin Salman Al Saud may provide additional indicators of future supply adjustments. Markets will also be attentive to any shifts in demand forecasts or unexpected geopolitical events that could alter current pricing trends.

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Disclosure: This article was edited by Estefano Gomez. For more information on how we create and review content, see our Editorial Policy.