OPEC oil production recovers in July, Iran remains about a quarter below pre-war levels

Global oil markets got some welcome news in August 2026: OPEC managed to claw back a significant chunk of the production it lost earlier in the year. A Reuters survey published around August 10 found that the group’s 11 remaining members pumped a combined 19.85 million barrels per day in July, up 1.17 million bpd from June. That is a meaningful recovery from the depths of May 2026, when OPEC output hit its weakest point since at least the year 2000.

The rebound is real, but it comes with an asterisk the size of a tanker: Iran, one of OPEC’s historically significant producers, is still running about 25% below where it stood before the US-Israel-Iran conflict reshaped the region’s energy landscape.

How the recovery happened, and who drove it

The bulk of July’s gains came from Gulf producers resuming supplies that had been disrupted by the ongoing conflict and the effective blockade of the Strait of Hormuz earlier in 2026. Iraq was the standout performer, logging the largest single-country production increase within OPEC during the month. Kuwait and Libya also contributed meaningfully to the group’s overall output gains. Saudi Arabia, by contrast, saw a slight dip in production compared to June.

OPEC+ had formally approved a symbolic quota increase of 188,000 bpd for seven of its core member countries, but logistical challenges, damaged infrastructure, and ongoing geopolitical friction have kept actual supply well below what quota math would suggest is possible.

Iran’s persistent shortfall

Iran’s oil exports did pick up briefly during the early stages of the regional recovery. Then, in mid-July, the US reimposed restrictions on port activities connected to Iranian oil shipments, and the brief export window slammed shut. The result is a production profile that sits roughly a quarter below pre-war levels.

The UAE’s absence from the current OPEC count adds another wrinkle. The group is now operating with 11 members after the UAE’s departure, which changes how quota allocations and compensation mechanisms work internally.

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