3 hours ago
15
Somalia has closed the Bab el-Mandab Strait to Israeli shipping, escalating tensions in the US-Israel-Iran conflict. The market for the strait being effectively closed by April 30 sits at 4% YES.
The May 31 market is now at 18% YES, compared to 24% a day ago. Somalia’s move has raised the probability of maritime restrictions by mid-May, though the 4% April market is relatively unchanged, meaning traders still see immediate full closure as unlikely.
Volume at $11,615 in actual USDC traded over the past 24 hours across the Bab el-Mandeb markets. It takes just $384 to move the May 31 odds by 5 points, which makes the market vulnerable to large trades. The biggest price move was a 5-point drop early this morning, likely driven by a single sell order.
For traders, the April market looks stable, but the May closure market offers an asymmetric bet. Buying YES at 18¢ pays $1 if the strait closes, a 5.56x return. This bet assumes continued escalation and no diplomatic resolution.
Watch for further announcements from the Houthis or Iranian officials regarding the Bab el-Mandeb. US CENTCOM’s next engagement with Houthi representatives could also shift odds if de-escalation talks gain traction.
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