Spain Goes After Polymarket, Kalshi as Legal Fork Between US and EU Keeps Widening

European Enforcement Efforts Grow as US Takes Different Direction

The Dirección General de Ordenación del Juego (DGOJ) published the notices in the Boletín Oficial del Estado after attempts to notify the platforms at their foreign addresses failed. The process is expected to take three to four months.

Both platforms had recently drawn Spanish social media attention with markets pricing the early end of Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez’s term: Kalshi’s “which national leader will leave office in 2026” contract listed the PM at 29%. Major Spanish ISPs are expected to implement network-level DNS blocks within 7 to 10 days, redirecting users who try to reach the two domains to a government landing page.

The Spanish action lands within a broader 2026 wave of European enforcement. Portugal’s gambling regulator gave Polymarket a 48-hour shutdown ultimatum in January after the platform processed roughly $120 million in trading volume on the country’s presidential election. The Netherlands followed in February, when the Dutch Gaming Authority (KSA) ordered Polymarket to stop serving Dutch users or face fines of €420,000 per week, capped at €840,000. European regulators are consistently treating prediction markets as gambling, with each member state applying domestic rules in the absence of a harmonized EU framework.

The US is moving in the opposite direction. On May 12, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission filed an amicus brief in the Sixth Circuit Court of Appeals in KalshiEx LLC v. Schuler, asserting the agency’s exclusive jurisdiction over prediction markets. CFTC Chairman Michael S. Selig framed the broader campaign as protecting the agency’s jurisdiction against state encroachment.

Trading activity remains heavily concentrated despite the regulatory pressure. Prediction markets traders have recorded an $8.6 billion volume during April 2026, while Kalshi closed a $1 billion Series F at a $22 billion valuation on May 7.

While European jurisdictions are converging on gambling classification with formal blocks, with Spain’s move being the latest in a lengthening line, the CFTC in the United States is asserting federal derivatives-markets jurisdiction with growing assertiveness in court. Whether the two regimes can coexist for cross-border platforms, or whether Polymarket and Kalshi will have to choose markets, is becoming an open structural question.