US expects oil supply disruptions of 600,000 barrels daily from Iran conflict through 2027

The US government now forecasts that oil supply disruptions stemming from the ongoing conflict with Iran will average roughly 600,000 barrels per day through the end of 2027. That number sounds almost manageable until you remember what came before it: the largest oil supply crisis in recorded history.

The projection, reported in August 2026, reflects a slow and uneven recovery from the chaos that erupted earlier this year when US and Israeli airstrikes targeted Iranian facilities in late February and early March. The Strait of Hormuz, a chokepoint that normally handles around 20 million barrels of oil per day, saw flows collapse to near zero at the conflict’s worst moments.

The scale of the damage

At its peak, the disruption shrank global oil flows to roughly 14 million barrels per day. The International Energy Agency called it unprecedented, surpassing previous crises including the Gulf War and the Iranian Revolution.

The carnage showed up immediately in global inventories. During the second quarter of 2026, stocks fell by 4.2 million barrels per day, a drawdown rate that left strategic reserves worldwide looking uncomfortably thin.

Brent crude has recently averaged between $78 and $85 per barrel. For context, Brent was trading in the mid-$70s before the conflict escalated, meaning the war premium has become a semi-permanent feature of oil pricing rather than a temporary spike.

Why recovery is taking so long

Two factors are keeping the disruption figure stubbornly high even as active hostilities have seen intermittent de-escalation.

First, physical infrastructure took real damage. Refineries, export terminals, and pipeline networks in the region weren’t designed to absorb military strikes and bounce back on a quarterly earnings timeline.

Second, shipping companies are still nervous. Even when the Strait of Hormuz is technically open, insurers and vessel operators have priced in the risk of renewed hostilities. Higher insurance premiums, longer routing around the chokepoint, and general reluctance to send tankers through contested waters all contribute to a logistics bottleneck that exists independent of whether anyone is actively firing missiles.

The US Energy Information Administration’s forecast essentially bakes in the assumption that neither the infrastructure nor the confidence problem gets solved quickly.

What this means for energy markets

For oil traders, the depleted inventory levels mean any additional geopolitical flare-up could produce outsized price spikes. When the global buffer stock is already drawn down, even minor supply hiccups hit harder.

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