US strikes Iran for eighth consecutive night after attack on base in Jordan

President Donald Trump confirmed that the United States has conducted another round of airstrikes against Iran, marking the eighth consecutive night of military action. This escalation follows an Iranian missile and drone attack on a U.S. base in Jordan, which resulted in the deaths of two American service members. The U.S. military operations are reportedly focused on degrading Iran’s missile infrastructure and coastal defenses. The ongoing conflict has intensified since Trump declared a memorandum of understanding with Iran “over” earlier in the month, following Iranian aggression in the Strait of Hormuz.

Key Takeaways

• Market activity suggests participants view the continued U.S. military strikes as supportive of a scenario where the U.S. might invade Iran before 2027.
• Current pricing for the probability of a U.S. invasion of Iran by the end of 2026 is at 30.5% YES, reflecting an increase from 18% a week ago.
• The repeated airstrikes and heightened tensions appear consistent with an increased likelihood of further military escalation.

What to Watch

Observers will be monitoring any additional military actions by Iran or the U.S., as these could further influence market perceptions of a potential invasion. Statements from key actors like President Trump or Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth will be pivotal in shaping future expectations. Any diplomatic developments or shifts in military strategy could impact market pricing significantly, particularly if there is movement towards de-escalation or, conversely, a formal announcement of invasion plans.

Get live prediction-market analysis, powered by Vera. Sign up for Vera.

Disclosure: This article was edited by Estefano Gomez. For more information on how we create and review content, see our Editorial Policy.