Washington lobbyists skeptical of prediction market limits before Congress ends

More than half of Washington’s lobbying community believes Congress will leave prediction markets largely untouched through the end of 2026. According to a recent poll, 57% of K Street respondents don’t expect lawmakers to pass legislation that would further restrict or outlaw trading on platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket before the 119th Congress concludes.

The lobbying math behind the status quo

Kalshi reported $990,000 in federal lobbying expenditures during just the first half of 2026, a pace that’s expected to exceed its full-year 2025 total. Polymarket has maintained its own lobbying efforts on a smaller scale, but the combined push from the sector reflects a clear strategy: make sure Washington doesn’t move the goalposts while these platforms are still building their user bases.

Several bills targeting insider trading by government officials on prediction platforms were introduced in 2026, including the bipartisan Public Integrity in Financial Prediction Markets Act. Other proposals aimed to restrict CFTC-regulated platforms from listing contracts tied to sports outcomes and politically sensitive events. None of these have gained the momentum needed to reach the finish line as standalone legislation.

The key proposals have instead found themselves relegated to potential inclusion within larger legislative packages, a legislative purgatory where bills go to wait, and often to die quietly.

Congress isn’t doing nothing, exactly

The Senate unanimously approved S.Res. 708 on April 30, 2026, a resolution that prohibits senators, officers, and employees from participating in prediction markets.

The bipartisan nature of the insider trading bills suggests there’s genuine appetite on both sides of the aisle for some guardrails. The problem is that appetite alone doesn’t pass legislation, especially during an election cycle when competing priorities crowd the calendar and lawmakers are more focused on campaigning than committee markups.

What this means for prediction markets

The absence of new federal restrictions doesn’t mean these platforms face zero regulatory risk. State-level challenges and pressure from established gambling operators remain ongoing concerns.

The proposals introduced in 2026 haven’t disappeared entirely. They’re still sitting in committee, and a future Congress could pick them back up.

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