MEMX files with SEC to launch prediction contracts tied to corporate earnings

MEMX, the exchange built by Wall Street to challenge Wall Street, just filed a proposed rule change with the SEC to offer prediction contracts tied to public company performance. The filing, submitted on August 11, positions the exchange to launch a product that lets traders place binary bets on corporate earnings, revenue, and other financial metrics.

The products are called Equities Based Exchange Prediction Contracts, or EPCs. Each contract is priced between $0.01 and $0.99, functioning like a simple yes-or-no wager on whether a company hits a specific financial target. If you’re right, the contract settles at $1. If you’re wrong, it goes to zero.

How EPCs actually work

That $0.01 to $0.99 price range means the maximum risk on any single contract is less than a dollar. MEMX plans to make these contracts accessible through established brokerages, with Interactive Brokers among the initial distribution partners.

The target launch window is early 2027, assuming the SEC gives its blessing.

Taking aim at Kalshi and Polymarket

MEMX is walking into a prediction market space that already has two prominent inhabitants. Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated exchange, has been offering event contracts on everything from economic data releases to weather events. Polymarket, which operates as a crypto-native prediction market, gained massive attention during the 2024 US presidential election cycle.

Where MEMX sees its edge is in the regulatory wrapper. As a fully registered national securities exchange operating under SEC oversight, MEMX can offer something neither competitor currently provides: prediction contracts that live inside the same infrastructure where stocks and options already trade.

MEMX isn’t the only legacy exchange eyeing this territory. CME Group and Cboe Global Markets have both explored event-contract products.

The bigger MEMX picture

Founded in 2019 by a consortium of major financial firms, MEMX was originally designed to inject more competition into US equity trading. The exchange has since expanded into options trading, operating both MEMX Equities and MEMX Options as separate platforms.

On July 30, TMX Group announced a strategic combination with MEMX that would merge it with BOX, creating a combined entity valued at $2.3 billion.

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