Scott Bessent says tariff revenue will remain virtually unchanged despite Supreme Court ruling

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent went on Fox News’s Sunday Morning Futures with a message that boiled down to: don’t worry about it. Despite a Supreme Court ruling that invalidated certain emergency tariff authorities, Bessent told viewers that tariff revenue would be “virtually unchanged” this year and beyond, with collections hovering near the $175 billion mark from the prior year.

The Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget, a nonpartisan fiscal watchdog, has projected that without effective replacement measures, the ruling could blow a $1.9 trillion hole in federal revenue through 2036.

The ruling and its fallout

The Supreme Court decision, handed down in February 2026, struck down tariff measures that had been imposed using the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA). The law was originally designed for national security emergencies, not as a permanent trade policy lever.

Bessent’s answer is that the Treasury Department’s remaining tariff authorities, combined with other trade mechanisms, will fill the gap. The projections from his team suggest tariff collections could eventually reach as high as $500 billion annually, a figure that would represent a nearly threefold increase from current levels.

The deficit picture

Bessent also addressed the federal budget deficit, noting that it came in at $1.78 trillion for fiscal year 2025. That represents a roughly 2% decrease, which the Secretary attributed in part to increased tariff collections. Bessent framed it as directional progress, setting a target for the deficit-to-GDP ratio to trend down to values “beginning with the number three.”

Bessent, the 79th Treasury Secretary and a former hedge fund manager, has consistently positioned tariffs as a dual-purpose tool. They serve as leverage in trade negotiations (particularly with China) and as a revenue source to chip away at the national debt, which sits in the range of $32 to $37 trillion.

The skeptics have receipts

The Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget’s analysis suggests that the Supreme Court ruling created a structural revenue gap that existing authorities cannot fully address. Their $1.9 trillion estimate through 2036 represents what the government stands to lose if the invalidated tariff powers aren’t replaced with something equally productive.

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