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SpaceX is gunning for a valuation between $1.75 trillion and $2 trillion when it goes public, a figure that would place Elon Musk’s rocket company in the same stratosphere as Apple and Nvidia. The company confidentially filed for its IPO in April 2026 and is expected to begin trading by June.
Prediction markets currently assign an 83% probability that SpaceX will close above the $1.8 trillion mark upon listing.
The S-1 surprise: 18,712 Bitcoins
When SpaceX dropped its S-1 filing on May 20, the filing revealed that SpaceX holds 18,712 BTC, carried at a fair value of approximately $1.29 billion. The company’s original cost basis for those coins was $661 million, meaning the position has nearly doubled in value on paper.
That makes SpaceX one of the larger corporate Bitcoin holders in the world, sitting in rarefied air alongside MicroStrategy and Tesla. The unrealized gain of roughly $630 million isn’t pocket change, even for a company targeting a nearly $2 trillion public market debut.
What’s actually driving the valuation
Starlink, the company’s satellite internet constellation, has become a genuine commercial juggernaut. The service now operates across dozens of countries, providing broadband to areas where traditional infrastructure doesn’t reach. Revenue from Starlink, combined with SpaceX’s dominant position in the reusable launch market, forms the backbone of the company’s financial story.
Prediction markets see a 95% probability of SpaceX listing by June 30, 2026. The valuation target of $1.75 trillion to $2 trillion is being underwritten primarily by terrestrial cash flows from satellites and launch contracts.
The Mars problem
SpaceX has never been shy about its ultimate mission: making humanity a multi-planetary species, starting with Mars. The Starship rocket is explicitly designed with that goal in mind.
The technical challenges of sustaining human life on Mars remain staggering: radiation exposure, the absence of a breathable atmosphere, the logistics of transporting millions of tons of supplies across 140 million miles of space. The skepticism from experts isn’t about whether Mars colonization is theoretically possible. It’s about whether it belongs in a financial valuation when asking public market investors to pay $1.8 trillion for a company.
What this means for investors
For crypto-native investors, the Bitcoin disclosure is the headline that matters most. SpaceX joining the ranks of major corporate BTC holders adds institutional legitimacy at a moment when Bitcoin is already trading near historic levels. If the IPO prices at or above $1.8 trillion, SpaceX becomes the highest-profile public company with a billion-dollar-plus Bitcoin position outside of MicroStrategy.
A company holding nearly 19,000 BTC is exposed to Bitcoin’s volatility in a way that will show up in quarterly earnings. If BTC drops 30% in a quarter, SpaceX reports a mark-to-market loss of nearly $400 million.
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