Bitcoin slips to $83,416 as 10-year Treasury yield nears 2007 high

What happened

Bitcoin retreated 1.5% on Monday, sliding to $83,416 as market participants reduced exposure to risk-sensitive investments. On Tuesday it held near $83,000, just above $83,100 during Asian trading hours. The $83,000 level has emerged as a critical near-term reference point.

The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield broke through the 5% threshold for the first time since 2007 and advanced to approximately 5.25%. It peaked at 5.274% on Monday, its highest since June 2007, while the 30-year reached 5.583%, a level last seen in 2002.

Brent crude advanced over 1% to approach $107 per barrel. It had moved back above $100 a barrel on Monday after President Donald Trump rejected Iran's seven-day plan to end the war and reopen the Strait of Hormuz.

Alternative cryptocurrencies fell. Zcash declined 12% to roughly $1,380. Ethereum traded around $2,670, while SOL held near $118.

Why it matters

Elevated risk-free returns from government securities increase the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like bitcoin. Kyle Rodda at Capital.com said rising crude prices are capping non-yielding assets, so bitcoin's rally has taken a bit of a pause. Thahbib Rahman at Block Scholes said bitcoin held between $82,000 and $84,000 for a week and a half despite the macro backdrop and the Senate's failure to advance the Clarity Act, with institutional demand behind that resilience.

Institutional demand has remained resilient. Spot Bitcoin ETFs have now taken in money for eight straight sessions, a run Rahman put at roughly $3 billion. U.S.-listed spot Bitcoin ETFs accumulated approximately $2.39 billion in net inflows during the previous week, the strongest weekly performance since October 2025.

Strategy has kept buying. The company disclosed purchasing 1,665 BTC for about $142.7 million between September 21 and 27, taking its holdings to 847,666 BTC and past the 847,363 it held in June.

What the data shows

Monday's ETF contribution was a net $31.07 million, with $54.84 million into BlackRock's IBIT and $10.32 million into Grayscale's mini trust offsetting outflows of $23.19 million from GBTC and $10.90 million from Fidelity's FBTC. The funds hold $107.82 billion, or 6.42% of Bitcoin's market capitalization.

Leveraged cryptocurrency positions worth over $500 million were liquidated during a 24-hour period. The aggregate cryptocurrency market capitalization stood near $2.86 trillion. A sentiment gauge registered 74 out of 100 on Monday.

Bitcoin rose more than 40% during the third quarter, its strongest third-quarter performance since 2017. It achieved its highest weekly closing price since late January at $84,450 before declining to one-week lows around $82,557.

One report put the chance of a 0.25% Federal Reserve rate increase in October at 70.3%, up from 57.7% a week prior, another reported the same 70.3% reading, up from 55.4% a week ago and 17.7% a month ago.

What is still unclear

• Whether the $83,000 level holds. Technical analysts see a descending triangle and horizontal resistance at $86,700.
• The divergence between accelerating ETF demand and declining prices indicates broader market selling is currently overwhelming institutional accumulation.

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