XRP trades near $1.50 as analysts eye a $1.60 breakout

What happened

XRP traded near $1.50 on Sept. 30. TradingView's Binance XRP/USDT charts put the token at approximately $1.498 to $1.499, while a separate report put Ripple near $1.53 on September 30, flat over the previous 24 hours.

The token remains below its September peak. XRP tagged $1.6582 last week after climbing from a September 16 low near $1.2457 on the two-hour Binance chart, a gain of roughly 33%.

Buyers now face a resistance corridor spanning $1.53 to $1.60. Analyst DukesMarketAnalysis pointed to the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement level at $1.532 as an additional obstacle, while $1.5625 marks daily resistance on the daily chart.

Support sits near $1.49 to $1.50. Below that, the 50-day and 200-day moving averages have converged near $1.37, with a deeper floor around $1.26.

Why it matters

The $1.58 to $1.60 band matters because earlier attempts to hold above it have not stuck. Egrag Crypto characterized XRP as range-bound between $1.45 and $1.65, and the token needs to clear that upper edge to change the structure.

A bullish flag pattern has emerged on the daily timeframe beneath current resistance, suggesting support at $1.5070 with upside objectives at $1.7683 and $2.1667.

Exchange supply has thinned. XRP holdings on Binance dropped to 2.69 billion tokens by Monday, CryptoQuant data shows, down from 2.70 billion the previous Saturday.

US spot XRP ETFs absorbed approximately $75.59 million during the Sept. 21-25 trading week, with Bitwise contributing roughly $58.99 million and Franklin Templeton about $16.60 million. Aggregate XRP ETF inflows climbed near $1.79 billion.

A near-term supply variable is also ahead. Ripple is set to release up to 1 billion XRP, worth roughly $1.5 billion at current prices, on Oct. 1.

What the data shows

XRP hovered near $1.52, a 2.73% increase across the previous 24-hour period. Daily trading activity registered $4.55 billion, and market capitalization reached $95.68 billion. The token remained down 3.66% across the weekly timeframe.

Momentum readings differ by timeframe. The Relative Strength Index registers 58.02 on TradingView, above the neutral 50 threshold, while a separate set of three RSI readings sits at around 39.27, 42.79 and 48.14, all under the 50 mark.

Another report noted futures open interest fell about $270 million from Sep. 28.

On the 4-hour chart, XRP trades just below the Bollinger Bands' middle line at $1.5031. The upper band stands at $1.5355, while the lower band sits at $1.4707.

Liquidation heatmaps show upside clusters at $1.53-$1.54 and $1.56-$1.58. Downside clusters sit at $1.49-$1.50 and $1.45-$1.46, and CoinGlass data points to potential liquidations above the market around $1.55, $1.57 and $1.59.

Background

XRP established its floor close to $1.00 in August before starting an upward trajectory marked by consecutive higher lows. It remains below its late-September peak near $1.65, with recent trading concentrated around the $1.50 level.

Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse commented on Sept. 24, saying he is not an XRP maximalist and is bullish on a number of cryptocurrencies for a number of reasons.

On the network side, the XRP Ledger's BatchV1_1 enhancement, designed to bundle up to eight interconnected transactions for simultaneous settlement or failure, was postponed to at least Oct. 9 following a temporary reset in validator approval.

The weekly chart has also shown an 8-week and 21-week exponential moving average bullish intersection, which reports describe as a sign of strengthening medium-term momentum rather than a confirmed trend reversal.

What is still unclear

• How much of the 1 billion XRP unlock will reach the market is not settled. The release is described as a gross unlock, not a confirmed sale, and Ripple may redistribute the tokens or return a large share to escrow.
• Whether XRP can close above $1.60 on a sustained basis is also unresolved. That zone has previously rejected upward price movements.
• Weekly charts still show a pattern of lower highs and lower lows. Analysts say a break above prior highs is needed before that structure changes.
• Short-term momentum is mixed. The 4-hour RSI sits at 47.29, below the 50 midpoint, while the daily RSI reads 57.14, above it.

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