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FIGR_HELOC $1.03 Bitcoin bull market intact despite profit-taking warnings
CryptoQuant flags elevated trader gains and slowing demand as short-term headwinds for BTC.
Key takeaways
- Trader profits at 21-month peaks. Short-term traders hold 33% unrealized profits, the highest since December 2024, inviting profit-taking.
- Futures demand weakened sharply. Futures demand growth fell from 164,000 BTC on September 14 to 16,000 BTC on September 29.
- Large daily profit realization. Bitcoin holders realized 25,700 BTC in profit on September 22, the largest daily amount in 2026.
What happened
Bitcoin maintained bullish structure after closing above its 365-day moving average, according to CryptoQuant research head Julio Moreno. The firm awarded BTC a score of 90 out of 100 on its Bull Score Index, signaling strong underlying market health. Yet this optimism comes with notable caveats about near-term momentum.
Traders have accumulated substantial unrealized gains following recent price advances. The group holding open positions carries a 33% profit margin, the highest since December 2024. On September 22 alone, profit-takers withdrew 25,700 BTC from the market, marking the largest single-day realization in 2026.
Market signals suggest weakening momentum beneath the surface. Exchange deposit flows hit 76,000 BTC over seven days, their highest level since mid-October 2025, indicating holders are positioning to sell. Institutional buying through spot ETFs has also slowed after several months of strength.
Speculative activity lost steam during late September. Futures demand dropped sharply to 16,000 BTC on September 29 from 164,000 BTC two weeks earlier. Moreno attributed the recent rally primarily to futures speculation, suggesting waning new demand could constrain near-term price upside.
Why it matters
The combination of elevated trader profits and diminishing demand presents a test for Bitcoin's bull-market foundation. When profit margins reach 33%, historical precedent shows traders often secure gains following strong advances, potentially triggering pullbacks. The timing matters because futures demand typically drives rallies, and its collapse to 16,000 BTC signals that speculative drivers are fading.
Support levels provide the next battleground. CryptoQuant identifies $80,000 as the first major floor, where Bitcoin's 365-day moving average sits. Below that, the 200-day average provides cushion near $71,000. How price behaves at these levels will determine whether consolidation holds the bull-market structure intact or whether broader weakness develops.
Questions readers ask
Is Bitcoin still in a bull market?
Yes, according to CryptoQuant's Bull Score Index of 90 out of 100. However, Julio Moreno cautioned that short-term correction risks exist because trader unrealized profits have reached 33%, their highest since December 2024.
What are the key support levels for Bitcoin?
CryptoQuant identifies $80,000 as the first major support, where Bitcoin's 365-day moving average sits. The 200-day average provides another level near $71,000, followed by trader-realized price near $67,000.
Why is CryptoQuant warning about a correction?
Multiple signals point to weakening momentum. Spot demand contracted 170,000 BTC over 30 days, exchange deposits surged to 76,000 BTC in seven days, and futures demand plummeted from 164,000 BTC to 16,000 BTC. Combined with 33% trader profit margins, these factors suggest potential profit-taking ahead.
