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ZEC $1,313 DOGE Near $0.093 With Bitwise ETF Exit Looming, The $0.10 Test Gets Harder
Dogecoin trades just above a moving-average support zone as a small Bitwise fund prepares to close and traders watch the $0.10 level.
Key takeaways
- The level is $0.10. DOGE traded between $0.093269 and $0.10 across reports, with $0.10 as the main resistance.
- The fund is small. The Bitwise fund had about $688,000 in net assets as of September 9.
- Odds favor bulls. Analyst Luisa Crawford put the bullish outcome at 55% and the bear case at 45%.
What happened
Dogecoin traded at $0.093269 at 04:50 EDT on October 4, according to Crypto Daily, close to a moving-average support cluster but still below the first meaningful upside hurdle. The report said the token rebounded sharply on September 21 before being rejected around $0.10, with an October 2 range from roughly $0.0903 to $0.0980. By October 5, Crypto.news put DOGE near $0.0955 with around 156.2 billion coins circulating.
Blockonomi reported DOGE gained 3.54% on Monday and moved up to $0.10. It said that level lines up with strong resistance, immediate resistance and the upper Bollinger Band. Bitwise expects to convert its fund's DOGE holdings to cash October 14 and distribute proceeds around October 22, according to Crypto.news, and the fund had about $688,000 in net assets as of September 9, Crypto Daily reported.
Why it matters
The $0.10 line divides a recovery from another failed rally. Crypto Daily said DOGE must overcome resistance at $0.0937 and $0.0986 before it can properly test $0.10. At a $0.0955 reference, $0.10 is a 4.7% gain, while $0.1056 requires about 10.6%.
Blockchain.news analyst Luisa Crawford put the odds of a bullish outcome at 55% and said a daily close above $0.10 could open a path toward $0.12, with a stretch target of $0.13 to $0.14. She put the bear case at 45% and said a failure to close above $0.10 in two to three sessions with a negative MACD could send DOGE back to $0.09 support. Crawford said the move came from spot buying, not a momentum chase.
What the data shows
Readings were mixed. A September 30 reading put daily RSI at 56, a neutral-to-constructive level that was not overbought. Blockonomi cited a separate RSI reading of 59. Open interest dropped 7.28% over the past 24 hours, and top traders held a 76.6% long allocation.
CoinGecko showed roughly $502 million in 24-hour trading volume on October 5 and about $2.14 billion in perpetual futures open interest. The 10,000 DOGE block reward implies about 14.4 million newly mined DOGE per target day. Crypto.news cited a $0.11 to $0.12 upside range and a $0.075 to $0.085 downside range.
What is still unclear
- Whether DOGE holds its moving-average support is unresolved. Crypto Daily said a sustained hold above the 200-day EMA near $0.0932 would preserve the argument that the late-September rebound has not fully failed, while spot sits almost directly on that average.
- The testnet may not become mainnet demand. Crypto.news noted that a new application testnet supplies an adoption story, though its test activity is not yet mainnet demand. DogeOS opened its public testnet on September 30.
Questions readers ask
What are the odds DOGE closes above $0.10?
Blockchain.news analyst Luisa Crawford put the bullish outcome at 55%, with a daily close above $0.10 possibly opening a path toward $0.12. She put the bear case at 45% and said a failure to close above $0.10 in two to three sessions could send DOGE back to $0.09 support.
When does the Bitwise fund close?
Bitwise expects to convert its fund's DOGE holdings to cash October 14 and distribute proceeds around October 22. The fund had about $688,000 in net assets as of September 9.
What levels matter for DOGE now?
It put the nearest support zone at $0.0932-$0.0940.
