Trader Michael XBT says XRP breakout is 'due very soon' after long lull

What happened

Michael XBT, a crypto trader followed closely within the XRP community, used a post on X on 28 October to argue that the token warrants renewed attention. He said XRP has been consolidating for more than two months and that the next major breakout is "due very soon." The call rests on the length of the current sideways stretch rather than on any new catalyst, and the trader did not attach a price target or a specific timeframe to it.

In the same post he pointed back to a message from 1 July in which he said he had been accumulating XRP, adding: "You're about to see why." He has claimed credit for anticipating both the drop below $1 and the recovery that followed, and by returning to the July post he presents the August rally as vindication of that earlier positioning.

The remarks landed while XRP was changing hands just above $1.30. CoinMarketCap data put the token at $1.32, up 2.25% over the previous 24 hours, while CoinGecko showed $1.33 with a 0.6% daily gain. Both trackers had XRP down by roughly 11% over the past month.

The Crypto Basic and ZyCrypto both reported the post, with the former noting that the trader has not laid out where he expects the token to travel, only that a significant move is approaching.

Why it matters

XRP has tested holders' patience for weeks, and the trader's post is one of several recent attempts to read the flat price action as a setup rather than stagnation. His comments echo a view circulating among some members of the XRP community, where analysts are trying to identify whether the token is coiling for a move higher or simply losing momentum.

The debate is not settled. Ali Martinez said a day before the post that the TD Sequential indicator had flashed a potential buy signal on XRP, noting that the same tool has previously appeared ahead of gains of 18%, 24% and 31%. He identified $1.25 as the level that needs to hold for a recovery toward $1.40 to stay plausible, while warning that a break below it could open the way to $0.98, particularly if large holders keep selling.

ChartNerd takes the opposite view, arguing that a bearish death cross, formed when the 20-day EMA drops under the 50-day EMA, could push the token back below $1. The disagreement matters because XRP is trading close to the levels both camps treat as decisive, so a relatively small move in either direction would strengthen one case and weaken the other.

On the fundamental side, Ripple has secured final approval from the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency to establish a national trust bank, a step that could support its institutional custody business. The approval does not guarantee any price effect, and none of the analysts cited linked it directly to their chart-based calls.

What the data shows

XRP's August run began after the token traded near $1.05 and then slipped to about $0.97 by mid-August. Four days later it jumped 72% to $1.70 before running out of steam, according to The Crypto Basic, which described the subsequent period as a narrow range lasting more than two months. Michael XBT's earlier accumulation post was dated 1 July.

At the time of reporting, the token sat near $1.30. The daily gain was modest and inconsistent between data providers, 2.25% on CoinMarketCap versus 0.6% on CoinGecko, while the monthly decline was reported at about 11% and 11.9% respectively. The key levels flagged by analysts are $1.25 as support, $1.40 as a potential recovery target and $0.98 as the downside risk if support fails. ChartNerd said comparable death-cross signals in May and August preceded declines of about 30%, with XRP falling from $1.40 to below $1 before rebounding.

Background

Michael XBT built his current argument on a track record he says includes calling both the dip under $1 and the rebound that followed. His July post, in which he told followers he was accumulating the token and that they were "about to see why," preceded a rally that took XRP from below $1 to roughly $1.70 in August. Since then the price has largely moved sideways, which is the pattern he now describes as a precursor to another major move. ZyCrypto noted that the price action has yet to confirm that scenario and that a sustained recovery would be needed to support the case for a fresh surge.

What is still unclear

It is not clear what would trigger the breakout Michael XBT expects, or over what horizon. He gave no target, no invalidation level and no timeframe, which makes the call difficult to assess. The two price reports also differ slightly on the spot figure and the 24-hour change, a common discrepancy between data providers. And while the OCC approval gives Ripple a regulatory milestone, the reports do not establish whether it has influenced XRP trading at all.

What to watch

Traders following the competing analyses will be watching whether XRP holds above $1.25, which Martinez framed as the line between a recovery toward $1.40 and a slide back to $0.98. A move above the short- and medium-term moving averages would weaken ChartNerd's death-cross thesis, while continued weakness could confirm it. The behaviour of large holders is another variable Martinez cited, since continued selling would make a break of support more likely. Broader moves in the crypto market remain an unquantified influence on all of these levels.

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