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ZEC $1,204 Analyst Reviews Cardano Data and Says ADA Is Not Dead
John Nakamoto says Cardano's problem is usage, not technology, after reviewing its on-chain data.
Key takeaways
- Price is down. ADA has lost more than 92% from its peak after trading at about $2.97 on September 3, 2021.
- Usage gap is wide. Cardano's market value is around 144 times larger than the about $71 million in its DeFi ecosystem.
- Treasury holds ADA. Nakamoto estimates Cardano's treasury holds around 1.4 billion ADA, and he says how it is used matters.
What happened
Crypto researcher John Nakamoto reviewed Cardano's data and called the numbers "insane," while saying ADA is not dead. He shared the assessment on X after examining Cardano's performance since ADA became the third-largest cryptocurrency by market value in 2021.
On September 3, 2021, ADA was worth about $2.97, giving Cardano a market value of around $95 billion. ADA later rose above $3 before beginning a long decline, and it has since lost more than 92% of its value from its peak.
Nakamoto says the problem is not technology but turning a high market value into real-world network use. He points to about $10.2 billion in market value compared with only about $71 million locked in Cardano's DeFi ecosystem. That market value is around 144 times larger than the money in use in its DeFi system.
He also noted Cardano has about $67 million in stablecoins, around $4.4 million in daily DEX volume, and roughly 16,000 daily active addresses. For him, these numbers show the challenge of converting valuation into usage.
Why it matters
The debate matters because some critics call Cardano "dead" after the price decline. Nakamoto argues that view misses the bigger question: whether the network can translate its hefty valuation into meaningful real-world usage.
For ADA holders, ecosystem growth is as important as technological development. Cardano has the technology, treasury, governance framework, and infrastructure for a broader ecosystem, but the next challenge is more users, deeper liquidity, stronger applications, greater DeFi activity, and real-world use cases.
Nakamoto believes USDCx can help solve Cardano's liquidity problem. USDCx is backed 1:1 by USDC and gives users dollar-based liquidity on Cardano, making it easier for money to move in without third-party bridges.
What the data shows
- Cardano's market value was about $10.2 billion, while DeFi TVL was about $71 million, a ratio of around 144 times.
- Stablecoins on Cardano were about $67 million, daily DEX volume was around $4.4 million, and daily active addresses were roughly 16,000.
- ADA traded at about $2.97 on September 3, 2021, when Cardano's market value was around $95 billion, and it later rose above $3 before a long decline.
- ADA has lost more than 92% from its peak, and Nakamoto estimates Cardano's treasury holds around 1.4 billion ADA.
Questions readers ask
Is Cardano dead?
Analyst John Nakamoto says no. He argues that the bigger issue is the gap between Cardano's market value and its actual network usage, not the technology itself.
What did John Nakamoto call "insane" about Cardano?
He described Cardano's on-chain numbers as "insane." He pointed to about $10.2 billion in market value against roughly $71 million in DeFi TVL, plus $67 million in stablecoins and 16,000 daily active addresses.
How much has ADA fallen from its peak?
ADA traded at about $2.97 on September 3, 2021, and has since lost more than 92% of its value from its peak.
