Truflation Forecasts September US Headline CPI to Hit 3.6%

What happened

Truflation released its October 9 inflation forecast projecting September U.S. headline CPI will rise 3.6% year-over-year, up from August's 3.4% reading, with monthly headline inflation at 0.48% [n1, n3]. The firm's annual core CPI forecast for September holds at 2.4%, with monthly core inflation projected at 0.23%, below the 2.5% annual and 0.2% monthly market consensus cited in the report [n2, n4, n5]. The forecast cites gasoline price increases, tariffs and higher production chain costs as key drivers of the expected headline CPI rise, while slower hiring, easing housing costs and lower food prices are expected to offset some pressure [n1, n12, n10].

Why it matters

The Truflation forecast arrived ahead of the official October 14 Bureau of Labor Statistics CPI release, which ultimately showed September headline CPI rose 3.7% year-over-year, above Truflation's estimate and the 3.7% market consensus, with monthly headline inflation at 0.6% [n17, n19]. Core CPI for the month hit 2.6% annually, above both Truflation's 2.4% forecast and the 2.5% consensus, with monthly core inflation at 0.3% [n18, n20]. The hotter-than-expected official data reduces near-term Federal Reserve rate-cut expectations and increases pressure for higher interest rates, per analysis from the report's publisher [n18].

What is still unclear

• It is unclear how much of the 7% annual increase in August import prices and 5.4% annual producer inflation will be passed on to consumers in the final months of 2026, as Truflation noted importers may absorb costs via lower margins or older inventory [n13, n14].

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