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XRP Price at Crossroads as Network Growth Diverges From Value
XRP has declined despite October developments including a major company listing and ledger upgrades, with analysts watching for price confirmation of growing
Key takeaways
- October developments didn't reverse decline. XRP fell about 10% in early October despite announcements about Evernorth's listing and BatchV1_1 activation on the ledger, suggesting the market has yet to price in these catalysts.
- Wallet growth doesn't guarantee price recovery. The XRP Ledger reached a record 8.24 million non-empty wallets with 4,772 new wallets created in one day, but adoption metrics have not aligned with price action, leaving a gap between network usage and valuation.
- Price levels are technically significant. XRP faces resistance near $1.40, with a sustained move above it and network growth near 4,000+ new wallets daily viewed by analysts as conditions for a return to $1.50, while a breakdown below $1.30 could expose support near $1.25.
What happened
XRP began October trading near $1.49 but declined to around $1.32, $1.34 by late October, according to multiple market observers. The move represents roughly a 10% pullback despite the completion of Evernorth's merger ahead of its October 12 Nasdaq debut under ticker XRPN and the October 9 activation of BatchV1_1 on the XRP Ledger. Crypto.news and The Crypto Basic both documented the disconnect between these developments and the token's price trajectory.
The technical picture shows XRP struggling at key resistance levels throughout the month. The token broke below its 50-day moving average around $1.43 in mid-October, with subsequent rebounds encountering difficulty near $1.39 and $1.40. By late October, XRP was trading in a range with immediate support around $1.30 and longer-term support identified near $1.25, according to technical analysis from Coinpedia.
On-chain activity painted a different story. The XRP Ledger reached a record 8.24 million non-empty wallets, with a notable spike of 4,772 new wallets created in a single day, described by Santiment as the fifth-largest daily increase since March. However, this expansion in network participation did not translate into sustained upward price momentum, creating a divergence between adoption metrics and valuation.
First $1.52Latest $1.28-15.8% over the period
Points are daily observations, not closing prices.
Why it matters
The mismatch between network fundamentals and price performance shapes how investors and analysts assess XRP's near-term direction. A return to $1.55 would require approximately 15.7% appreciation from late-October levels, while an adverse scenario testing $1.15 would represent a 14.2% decline. The question of which direction prevails depends on whether the October developments can eventually attract sustained buying interest or whether price weakness will continue despite network growth. Ripple's Swell conference, scheduled for October 27, 29, offers potential for new information that could influence November trading.
What the data shows
Price movements in October showed a clear downward trend despite positive headlines. XRP opened the month near $1.49 on October 1, according to historical price data referenced by Crypto.news, and closed near $1.33, $1.34 by October 21. The decline persisted through a period that included the Evernorth merger completion, the Nasdaq listing, and the BatchV1_1 activation. A move from $1.49 to $1.34 represented approximately $0.15 per token or roughly 10.1% of the earlier reference price.
Network metrics tracked by Santiment showed consistent wallet growth independent of price performance. The XRP Ledger's non-empty wallet count rose steadily from around 7.8 million in May to 8.24 million by late October. The metric does not represent unique individual investors, as one person or organization can control multiple addresses. The fifth-largest daily spike in wallet creation since March, recorded at 4,772 new wallets in one day, suggested renewed participation despite price weakness. Spot XRP ETF flows showed signs of stabilization after a period of weakness in early and mid-October, according to Coinpedia's analysis.
Analysts set conditional scenarios for November based on technical and on-chain alignment. Santiment outlined a path to $1.50 requiring XRP to sustain a move above $1.40 while daily network growth remained near or above 4,000 new wallets per day. Coinpedia identified the $1.40 level as pivotal resistance, with a breakdown potentially exposing rallies to $1.28 support and a rise capable of pushing price beyond $1.55. The volume profile showed a prominent cluster around $1.40 to $1.55, indicating significant historical trading interest in that zone.
Background
Evernorth's Nasdaq listing brought a major XRP holder into the public markets. The company closed its merger with approximately 473 million XRP and roughly $300 million in gross cash proceeds, establishing substantial token exposure at the corporate level. Ripple, Kraken, Coinbase, and BitGo were appointed to support strategies involving the treasury, with initial deployment planned for the fourth quarter. At late-October prices near $1.34, Evernorth's XRP holdings carried a quoted value near $634 million, though this figure does not reflect the company's cost basis or the way investors price XRPN shares relative to the underlying token reserve.
The BatchV1_1 upgrade, which activated on October 9, allows users to package up to eight transactions into a single operation on the ledger. This technical improvement aims to enhance network efficiency, though the initial rollout represents a capability expansion rather than an immediate driver of transaction volume or pricing. Network activity measured by daily active addresses reached 27,400 according to Token Terminal data reviewed by Coinpedia, climbing from a range of 15,000 to 20,000 earlier in October.
What is still unclear
The timing and scale of Evernorth's actual token deployment remained undefined as October ended. While the company appointed service providers for treasury strategies and announced plans for initial deployment in the fourth quarter, no confirmed transactions or purchase volume was disclosed. Similarly, the extent to which BatchV1_1 activation will drive user adoption and increased on-chain activity remains to be demonstrated. The role of broader market conditions, particularly Bitcoin's price action, in determining XRP's trajectory was noted by analysts but could not be isolated from token-specific factors.
What to watch
November trading will likely hinge on whether XRP can sustain a move above $1.40 while maintaining network growth near or above 4,000 new wallets daily, according to Santiment's framework. Coinpedia flagged the need to monitor ETF inflows and whether institutional demand stabilizes alongside improving ledger activity. Ripple announcements or regulatory developments could influence market sentiment, though no specific catalysts were identified beyond the Swell conference and typical fourth-quarter business developments. The invalidation scenario, XRP losing $1.30 while network growth falls below roughly 3,000 new wallets per day, would shift the near-term outlook toward weakness, according to analysts.
Questions readers ask
Why did XRP price fall despite positive October announcements?
The Evernorth merger, Nasdaq listing, and BatchV1_1 activation were announced and completed while XRP declined from $1.49 to roughly $1.34. Analysts suggest the market had already priced in these developments or that positive network fundamentals have yet to translate into sustained buying interest.
What is the significance of the $1.40 resistance level?
Multiple analysts identified $1.40 as a key technical threshold. A sustained move above it, combined with continued network growth, could establish conditions for a return toward $1.50 and potentially $1.55. Failure to hold above $1.40 could expose support levels near $1.30 and $1.25.
Does the record wallet count guarantee higher prices?
No. The XRP Ledger reached 8.24 million non-empty wallets while price declined, showing that growing adoption metrics do not automatically produce price appreciation. Analysts view price confirmation of network growth, sustained moves above $1.40 alongside 4,000+ new daily wallets, as the necessary alignment.
