XRP exchange withdrawals near August highs ahead of Fed decision

What happened

XRP's mix of exchange transactions shifted toward withdrawals in the days before the Federal Reserve's late-October policy decision, according to CryptoQuant data reported by CoinGape and Coinpedia. On October 25, withdrawals made up 55.75% of XRP deposit and withdrawal transactions on Binance, close to the August 18 high of 56.75%. Across centralized exchanges the withdrawal share reached 54.85%, near a previous peak of 55.4%.

Deposit activity moved in the opposite direction. Binance's deposit share slipped to 44.25%, close to its August low of 43.25%, while deposits across all centralized exchanges accounted for 45.15%, compared with an earlier low of 44.5%. Coinpedia also noted a widening gap between Binance's whale-versus-retail spread and the broader market reading. On October 26 the Binance spread stood at 49.5% against 29.7% across centralized exchanges, a difference of 19.8 percentage points, compared with a gap of just 2.5 points on July 28.

Price action was subdued over the same period. CoinGape reported XRP at about $1.28 on October 25, down 0.49% on the day, with trading volume 12% lower at $1.44 billion according to CoinMarketCap data. Coinpedia characterised the exchange data as a potentially encouraging signal for the token's supply dynamics rather than a confirmed turn in price.

Derivatives and fund flows added to the more constructive tone. CoinGlass data cited by CoinGape showed the overall XRP long/short ratio at 1.12, with readings of 2.98 on Binance and 3.64 on OKX, meaning long accounts outnumbered short ones. The weighted funding rate remained positive. SoSoValue data showed XRP exchange-traded funds took in $4.25 million in the week of October 19 to 23, reversing $1.84 million of outflows the week before.

Why it matters

A withdrawal-heavy transaction mix matters because it can point to coins leaving venues where they would otherwise be available to trade. Coinpedia noted that if the trend continues alongside declining exchange balances, it could suggest less XRP is immediately available on centralized platforms. The outlet was careful to frame this as a condition rather than a conclusion, saying sustained net outflows and stronger spot demand would be needed to support that interpretation. CoinGape similarly tied the shift to traders positioning ahead of the Fed rather than to a single directional bet, noting that markets have already priced in the likelihood of no rate change and are waiting on guidance about inflation and the future path of policy.

What the data shows

CoinGape's review of the four-hour chart described a bullish setup forming as XRP defended support at $1.27, bouncing from that level twice to create a double-bottom pattern. A continued recovery would require a close above the $1.31 neckline, which could open a move toward $1.35. If the bounce loses momentum and the $1.31 level holds as resistance, the report said price could return to $1.27, and a failure to hold that support could send it to $1.25. The MACD line remained below zero, which CoinGape read as a warning that momentum still leaned bearish despite the rebound.

Background

The Federal Reserve's October meeting runs October 27 to 28, with the rate decision due on October 28. CoinGape reported that 95% of investors expect the Fed to leave rates between 3.75% and 4%, according to CoinGape Prediction Markets, and that attention is focused on Chair Kevin Warsh's guidance. Coinpedia described the meeting as an important event for crypto markets, with investors watching both the decision and policymakers' commentary for clues on financial conditions and demand for risk-sensitive assets. CoinGape also mentioned reports that Evernorth plans to raise $80 million to buy more XRP, one of the factors cited alongside the long-biased futures positioning.

What to watch

Two things to watch in the coming sessions: whether the withdrawal share keeps climbing and is matched by actual net exchange outflows, and whether spot demand picks up after the Fed announcement. Coinpedia said renewed buying after the decision could improve the prospects for a price recovery, while CoinGape flagged the $1.31 neckline and the $1.27 support as the levels that would define whether the double bottom resolves upward or breaks down. Continued ETF inflows would also be relevant, given the swing from outflows to inflows in the latest weekly data.

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