Crypto groups spend big as US midterms put Senate control in play

What happened

US voters are casting ballots in the 2026 midterms on Tuesday, with all House seats and 35 Senate races on the ballot. The results will decide which party controls Congress for the final two years of President Donald Trump's second term. Crypto regulation is among the issues at stake. More than 57.5 million early votes had been recorded by Monday evening, about 11.5 million above the 2022 midterm total, according to University of Florida Election Lab figures cited by CoinGape. Early voting was especially heavy in Senate battlegrounds including Texas, Ohio, Michigan, North Carolina, Georgia, Iowa and Kansas.

Republicans enter with a 53, 47 Senate edge and a narrow House majority. Cointelegraph, citing the Blockchain Association, put the House at 219 seats; CoinGape described it as roughly 218, 214. Democrats need a net gain of four Senate seats. Prediction markets cited by CoinGape put Democratic Senate odds at about 74, 77% and House odds at about 94, 95%, while DDHQ models were lower at about 62, 64% and 83, 84%, respectively. Sabato's Crystal Ball projected at least 239 House seats leaning Democratic.

Crypto groups spent about $176 million across more than 100 races, according to an Oct. 27 Reuters report cited by Cointelegraph. Fairshake, whose main financiers include Coinbase, Ripple and Andreessen Horowitz, was a major vehicle. CoinGape reported that Coinbase, Ripple and the Winklevoss twins topped the sector's donations. Spending has focused on Senate contests in Ohio, Nebraska and Texas.

Why it matters

The Senate's composition will shape the CLARITY Act, a market-structure bill that would split oversight between the SEC and CFTC and set rules for intermediaries. It failed a 49, 50 procedural vote on Sept. 15, short of the 60 needed. A Republican-held Senate would improve the odds of resuming work; a Democratic flip could push a market-structure vote into 2027 or later, CoinGape reported. Christian Davies of Relm Insurance told Cointelegraph that a change in control would most likely reset the bill's timetable. Ryan Kirkley of Global Settlement Network said the bill had already struggled under Republican leadership.

Democratic control could bring more scrutiny of Trump-linked crypto businesses and regulators' decisions, and Senate control affects confirmation of regulatory nominees. The industry already has a federal stablecoin framework through the GENIUS Act, which became law in July 2025. CoinGape noted that the SEC's XRP ETF delay earlier in the cycle was widely attributed to pre-election regulatory caution, and that Patrick Witt's departure from the White House Crypto Council last month added uncertainty about the administration's post-election posture.

What the data shows

The reports cite 57,530,789 early votes as of Monday evening, about 11.5 million above 2022; roughly $176 million in crypto-group spending across more than 100 races; more than $50 million spent opposing Ohio Democrat Sherrod Brown; and nearly $11 million in Fairshake spending benefiting Nebraska Republican Sen. Pete Ricketts, according to the Washington Examiner. Republicans hold 53 Senate seats, and the CLARITY Act cloture vote was 49, 50.

Background

Republicans have held both chambers, yet the CLARITY Act still stalled. Democratic Sen. Mark Warner cited insufficient safeguards against Trump profiting from his administration's crypto policies, Cointelegraph reported. Republican sponsors said their final draft included substantial ethics concessions. The failure left the next Congress to decide whether to revive the bill.

Bitcoin's record around past midterms has drawn attention, but analysts cautioned against treating it as a pattern. Bitcoin fell below earlier yearly lows after the 2014, 2018 and 2022 midterms. Michael Heinrich of 0G Labs told Cointelegraph there have not been enough cycles to call it a pattern and that ETF flows, institutional portfolios and global liquidity now matter more. Kirkley pointed to institutional flows, interest-rate expectations and market liquidity.

What is still unclear

The exact House margin differs between reports, with Cointelegraph citing 219 Republican seats and CoinGape describing a roughly 218, 214 split. Prediction markets and models also diverge on Democratic odds. It is unclear whether a new Congress would take up the CLARITY Act quickly or whether it would slip further. CoinGape also noted that Trump has floated a $5,000 "Trump dividend" contingent on Republicans holding both chambers; analysts cited by the outlet said it could add liquidity to crypto markets.

What to watch

Ohio, Nebraska and Texas are being watched as tests of crypto's political influence. In Ohio, Republican Jon Husted faces Democrat Sherrod Brown, a longtime crypto critic. In Nebraska, Republican Sen. Pete Ricketts faces independent Dan Osborn. In Texas, Republican Ken Paxton faces Democrat James Talarico, with the Winklevoss-backed Digital Freedom Fund supporting Paxton. Polls begin closing at 6 p.m. ET in parts of Indiana and Kentucky, with more waves at 7, 7:30, 8 and 9 p.m. ET, according to CoinGape.

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