XRP volatility squeeze puts 71% rally scenario in focus

What happened

XRP has slipped into a tight trading range, with the four-hour Bollinger Bands contracting to their narrowest level since August, according to The Crypto Basic. The token was described near $1.25, roughly midway between $1.23 and $1.27. CoinGape cited a slightly different snapshot, saying XRP had risen 2.25% in 24 hours to $1.28, but both reports focused on the same narrow decision area.

The compression followed a late-October selloff. The Crypto Basic said XRP had traded above $1.30 and briefly approached $1.40 before a run of bearish candles pushed it toward the lower $1.20s. Instead of extending the decline, the price moved sideways near $1.25 for several sessions, with candles shrinking and the upper and lower bands closing in around price.

CoinGape reported that XRP had broken above the upper Bollinger Band, a sign of improving bullish momentum, though it noted the indicator does not confirm buyer control. Analyst Martinez, cited in that report, pointed to a historical parallel: the last comparable squeeze in August was followed by a roughly 71% rally over three days. Both outlets stressed that the comparison is context, not a forecast.

Why it matters

The setup matters because Bollinger Band compression signals reduced volatility before a potentially larger move, but it does not dictate direction. The nearby boundaries are close. The Crypto Basic calculated that from $1.25, both $1.27 and $1.23 are about 1.6% away. A completed four-hour close above $1.27 would favor an upside expansion, while a completed four-hour close below $1.23 would point to downside expansion. Intraday wicks through either level would not be enough, according to that report.

CoinGape said a four-hour close above $1.27 could validate bullish sentiment, while a break below $1.23 would suggest bears had regained control. Above $1.27, the next area cited was $1.30-$1.34, where XRP traded before the latest breakdown. Below $1.23, attention would return to $1.20 and lower support levels. The Crypto Basic has also said XRP needs to reclaim $1.30 before the short-term structure improves materially.

What the data shows

On momentum, CoinGape said the four-hour RSI was around 61, indicating improving momentum without reaching overbought territory. It identified resistance at $1.27 and $1.30, with support at $1.23 and then $1.20. The report said a bullish MACD cross on the four-hour chart, accompanied by an expanding positive histogram, would strengthen the recovery case. The Crypto Basic cited earlier analysis that placed $1.26 and $1.10 among important downside levels.

Background

XRP's recent weakness came after a stretch above $1.35 and a brief approach to $1.40. The August squeeze is the reference point for the 71% scenario. The Crypto Basic noted that the previous move helps explain why the current compression draws attention, but it does not establish another 71% gain as a target. Bollinger squeezes measure contraction in volatility rather than direction, so a breakout can expand either way.

Network activity has also drawn notice. CoinGape, citing Santiment, said 7,934 new XRP wallets were created on Nov. 1, the sixth-highest daily total in 2026. The report said the figure stood out because Sundays usually see lighter blockchain activity. It also said the increase came after the Binance hack and might reflect users trying self-custody, though the link was not confirmed. Wallet creation alone does not guarantee buying demand or higher prices, the report added.

What to watch

The next clear tests are the four-hour closes at $1.27 and $1.23. CoinGape also flagged wallet growth thresholds: daily additions staying above 4,000 alongside a recovery above $1.30 would be a positive adoption signal, while creation falling below 3,000 combined with a drop below $1.20 would present a weaker picture. Broader market conditions remain part of the backdrop, with CoinGape noting Bitcoin around $76,000, Ethereum near $2,300, pressure on Solana and caution across crypto ahead of the November US midterm elections.

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