Galaxy Digital says bitcoin bear market ended in June, sees accumulation

What happened

Galaxy Research says bitcoin's bear market ended in June 2026 and the asset is now in an accumulation phase. The Galaxy Digital research unit said in an alert reported by CoinGape and The Daily Hodl that several indicators suggest selling pressure has eased and the setup could precede another sustained advance.

Alex Thorn, Galaxy's head of firmwide research, made the case in an analysis covered by The Daily Hodl, citing technical, positioning, fundamental and sentiment factors. Galaxy said the environment may suit longer-horizon investors but described the view as an outlook, not confirmation that bitcoin cannot fall again.

The report noted that bitcoin traded near $81.3K on Thursday, Oct. 22, after a close around $84K, a daily drop of about 3%. CoinGape noted that bitcoin had ranged between $80K and $89K over 30 days. At that level it was roughly 35% below its October 2025 record and about 39% above its June 30 low, and it would need a gain of about 53% to reclaim the high. The S&P 500, by contrast, was near its October record.

Why it matters

Galaxy's call matters because a prominent crypto research desk is arguing that the market has moved from bearish to accumulative after a period of weak price action. The gap between bitcoin and equities is central: the S&P 500 is near a record while bitcoin remains far below its own, which Galaxy uses to argue that the crypto asset may have room to recover.

The all-clear is not complete. CoinGape noted that bitcoin has posted double-digit percentage losses in U.S. midterm election years, citing Ali Martinez on 2014, 2018 and 2022. Galaxy's report also stops short of ruling out another decline, leaving a constructive research view alongside a historical risk.

What the data shows

The reports put the recovery in perspective. Bitcoin's move to about $81.3K followed a close near $84K and marked a daily decline of about 3%. It was roughly 35% below the October 2025 peak, about 39% above the June 30 low, and needed an approximately 53% gain to retake the record. CoinGape said bitcoin had traded in an $80K to $89K range over the prior 30 days.

On positioning, Thorn said basis traders and macro tourists who were long into October 2025 had cut ETF and futures exposure by more than half, while other holders mostly stayed put. On fundamentals, he pointed to the possibility of medium-term debasement by a sovereign running $2 trillion deficits with 5% yields. Ted Pillows, described by CoinGape as a well-known market expert, said a daily break above $81K could help bitcoin's near-term price action.

Background

Galaxy's view partly rests on bitcoin's halving cycle. Thorn said bitcoin was at day 916, past the point at which every prior cycle bottomed, according to The Daily Hodl. He also said the 200-week moving average held and the 50-week average had been regained for five straight weeks.

Thorn also said sentiment had turned toward 'blockchain, not Bitcoin' for the third time in his coverage. He recalled 2015-16, when the R3 consortium and The Economist's 'Trust Machine' cover made that view respectable; bitcoin's lowest weekly close was $231 before the next cycle high was 83 times higher. In 2018-19, he said, the refrain became 'blockchain, not crypto' as JPM Coin and Libra were unveiled and bitcoin traded at $3,195 before the next cycle high was 20 times higher.

What to watch

The next test is whether bitcoin can break through the $81K area on the daily chart and build on it. Galaxy's technical case also depends on the 200-week and 50-week moving averages continuing to support the view that the downtrend has ended. The other watch point is the midterm election pattern: bitcoin's double-digit losses in 2014, 2018 and 2022 give traders reason to treat the recovery setup with caution even as Galaxy argues the bear market is over.

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